Nats can handle a few Tory direct hits
PART of the fun of a General Election campaign as a political journalist is having a flutter on the result.
This time, the interesting question is how many seats the SNP will lose, after all but sweeping the board in 2015.
Following the local elections, Ruth Davidson claimed the Conservatives had the opportunity to redraw the political map of Scotland on June 8.
Analysis of their first preference votes suggests they could win as many as 15 seats and recent polls have projected gains of up to 11.
But with just one MP currently representing a Scottish constituency, such a big comeback would be remarkable.
And after a week in the north-east, home to four seats on the Tories’ Scottish target list, I’m not sure they will pull it off.
The party will certainly take some off the Nationalists, but not that many.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and Dumfries and Galloway are top of the list, and both within the Conservatives’ grasp. Third is West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and the signs are it is shaping up to be another Tory gain.
Targets four and five are Moray and Banff and Buchan, represented by the SNP’s deputy leader Angus Robertson and Eilidh Whiteford until Parliament was dissolved. Significantly, support for Brexit was high here, particularly among the fishing communities, and it’s not unreasonable to assume that will translate into votes for Theresa May.
But the catch sector, motivated by hatred of the Common Fisheries Policy, is just one group within a wider industry that benefits from EU single market membership.
Moreover, the influence of farmers – anxious about funding long-term – shouldn’t be ignored. So, while the constituencies are in play, my instinct is the SNP will hold on – Mr Robertson because of his profile at Westminster and Ms Whiteford because of her personal popularity and huge 14,339 majority.
Aberdeen South, eighth on the Conservatives’ list, is another interesting seat where the fight is on between the SNP’s Callum McCaig and Tory MSP Ross Thomson.
Of course, Labour and the Liberal Democrats hope to improve on their dire 2015 performance too. Jo Swinson seems a good bet in East Dunbartonshire and the Lib Dems look in the running in Edinburgh West and North East Fife.
Gordon, represented by Alex Salmond since 2015 but by Malcolm Bruce for more than three decades before that, is another the party is keen to take back. The Tories also have it in their sights, but toppling a giant is no easy task.
It’s fair to say the SNP is unlikely to match its 2015 landslide, but I’m not convinced there’ll be an upset on the scale some are predicting.
What’s more, even if the Nationalists do take a sizeable hit they’ll still be the dominant party by far.