Using VAR at penalties will actually help goalkeepers, not hinder them
So near yet so VAR.
That was the story of Scotland’s Women’s World Cup campaign.
From start to finish, the decisions referred to video all seemed to go against Shelley Kerr’s side.
But the final call – the one that killed off their knockout stage hopes – was the hardest to take.
It seemed goalkeeper Lee Alexander had made a stunning double save from the spot against Argentina to secure progression. Then VAR intervened.
Both of her feet, pictures shown to the match referee seemed to suggest, were in front of her goal-line when the ball was struck.
The resultant retake was scored, with Alexander seemingly unsure how to adjust her technique.
Even with the dust settled, the sense of injustice is hard to shake. David Preece understands why. Watching the Scots crash out in Paris, the former Aberdeen keeper felt hard done by, too.
But then the analyst in him got to work.
As goalkeeping coach at Swedish top league side, Ostersunds, he has devoted his working life since hanging up his gloves to making the keepers under his charge better.
And his feeling is that the new focus on goalies’ conduct at spot kicks could end up having a surprising effect.
“The biggest thing I’ve taken from all of this is that, actually, it could help goalkeepers,” said Preece.
“I know there has been a lot of talk about keepers cheating and trying to gain an advantage by advancing off their line – and every now and again, you will get a keeper who is excessive in their forward movement.
“But for me, as a coach who studies countless penalties every week, you find penalty-takers are a lot more accomplished than they used to be.
“More and more takers, like Eden Hazard for example, are goalkeeper dependent.
“So they’ll wait for the keeper’s first movement before choosing which side to shoot at.
“In that respect, it’s more beneficial to a goalkeeper to hold their position on the line for longer, rather than to guess.
“And if you’ve done your research on the taker, you shouldn’t be moving too early, as all you’re doing is giving them an advantage by committing before the strike.”
Preece’s assessment flies in the face of the anger Scotland’s World Cup exit has triggered.
It’s rational rather than emotional. But the ex-Dons stopper’s logic extends to scepticism about how VAR has been deployed in France, and whether the “one foot on the line” rule even needs to be enforced so stringently.
“Yes, you can argue it’s an example of VAR being used in a black-andwhite situation,” he said.
“The keeper is off the line. You can go back, yes, that’s fine.
“But was there a big uproar about keepers having a huge advantage from moving off their line anyway? I don’t think so.
“I’ve looked over the stats from the English Premier League over the last 26 years, and from the first 10 years, it’s something like 17% of penalties were saved.
“From 10-20, it was 18%. Then in the subsequent six, it went back down to something like 17.4%.
“So it’s not like there has been a huge rise in goalkeepers saving penalties, to the point where something has to be done about it.
“And anyway, in my experience, if you look at any compilation of best penalty saves, you see the goalkeepers who do advance the most don’t tend to prosper any more than anybody else.
“That’s because, from a goalkeeper’s point of view, if you advance two or three yards, you’re only narrowing the angle of the strike very slightly, whilst narrowing the time you’ve got to react to the shot quite substantially.
“If you’re three or four yards off your line, you’re at a point where you’re relying on the ball hitting you rather than making an active save, because there just isn’t time to react.
“With today’s top penalty takers being so accomplished, they’re tending to put them in spots where they’re unreachable anyway.
“As a goalkeeper, if you make an early movement, either to one side or forwards, they are going to pick you off.
“So if you’re coming off your line, it’s a negative.
“We’re talking fractions of a second here, but goalkeepers have to be more patient.
“If it’s a good penalty, it will be scored anyway. But waiting, in today’s game, is a tool that goalkeepers should be using.”
Preece remains a defender of VAR’s merits. But the manner of its deployment at the Women’s World Cup has irritated him.
Going forward, he wants to see its use more tightly regulated – and more respect shown to the women by FIFA.
“The English Premier League have said they’re going to leave it down to the officials on the pitch, and I totally agree with that,” he said.
“It should be up to the referee, and the assistant referees, to assess whether it’s a natural movement or excessive.
“I’m all for VAR for highlighting clear and obvious mistakes.
“But when it starts to creep into areas like this, it does become problematic.
“We have to be careful about what we’re doing to the game because there has to be an element of subjectivity in its officiating.
“Once you start nit-picking – the way we’ve seen at the Women’s World Cup – you have to start looking at other things, like encroachment.
“Then what? Are we saying throwins now have to be taken from the exact spot the ball went out?
“My fear about taking so much
With today’s top spot-kick takers so accomplished, they put them where they’re unreachable
responsibility out of the referee’s hands is that it will sanitise the game completely. There will be no flow.
“That needs to be prevented from happening.
“There are always going to be teething problems with something like VAR, and I think that’s basically what we’ve seen at the Women’s World Cup.
“But would FIFA have tinkered with rule changes like this during a men’s World Cup? I doubt it.
“So, actually, I think they’ve been a bit disrespectful to the players in France, and for Scotland, I hope some of those players get another chance to play at a World Cup.”
There were no games in the Swedish top flight this weekend, but Preece was still immersed in football.
Ostersunds’ goalkeeper, Aly Keita, is at the African Cup of Nations with Guinea, and his club coach was on the phone dispensing advice yesterday morning.
Preece also spent some time pondering Aberdeen’s prospects this season – and he reckons Joe Lewis’ continued presence at Pittodrie will prove key.
“I’m very surprised no clubs in England have been sniffing about Joe,” said the ex-Don.
“He always had the potential. “There was a lot of talk about big things happening for him when he was at Peterborough. He went to Cardiff City after that and it didn’t really happen for him.
“But sometimes it’s about finding the right club, and Aberdeen are obviously the right club for him.
“From the Dons’ perspective, it’s great that nobody has come in for him, because you need continuity in goal.
“For him now, I’d think Joe would be looking to stay at Aberdeen for as long as possible because he’s found a club that suits him.
“When you find that place, when you’re happy and playing well, and you’re at a club that can win cups, it’s better to stick with that than start all over again.”