A mission impossible
Leaked: Scottish Government advisers’ verdict on Prime Minister’s Moonshot testing programme
Scottish Government advisers fear Downing Street will be unable to deliver its Moonshot testing programme.
A leaked report seen by
The Sunday Post reveals disquiet among the First Minister’s senior scientific advisers over the ability of the UK Government to deliver the “enormously ambitious” plan on time.
Boris Johnson believes the £100bn programme of mass testing is the only way to curb the spread of Covid and stabilise the economy.
However, the Scottish advisers’ scepticism was echoed by public health experts yesterday, with one branding the No 10 blueprint “pie in the sky”.
The UK Government’s Moonshot testing programme is over ambitious and undeliverable in the proposed timescale, according to the Scottish Government’s team of scientific advisers.
A leaked document reveals the team advised Scottish ministers to get involved in the project only because it could boost testing capacity and provide economic benefits if they are proved wrong.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on Friday “we are very hooked in” to talks on the Moonshot plan but experts warned her against rushing to support the Prime Minister’s proposal, with one describing Moonshot as “pie in the sky”.
Mr Johnson’s £100bn plan aims to deliver 10 million Covid-19 tests every day by spring. The plan involves tests which provide rapid results in minutes despite the fact the science to produce those tests does not yet exist.
Details emerged this week amid growing concern over the rising number of cases – including 221 positive tests in Scotland – the highest Scottish figure for four months – and more than 3,000 across the UK yesterday.
A draft of the plan, which Downing Street believes is the only way to control the spread of the virus and stabilise the economy, was sent to the Scottish Government last month and on August 21 senior officials met to discuss it.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Nicola Steedman, national clinical director Jason Leitch, director general for health and social care Elinor Mitchell and chief scientist professor David Crossman, attended the meeting, according to minutes marked “official sensitive” which were seen by The Sunday Post.
The Scottish Government advisers concluded the level of ambition set out in the Moonshot plan was “enormous” and warned that it was unclear how and when it could be delivered. However, the group agreed to work with the UK Government to ensure that opportunities to expand Scotland’s testing capacity are not missed.
Dr Steedman spoke about Moonshot at the First Minister’s coronavirus briefing on Friday, saying: “Absolutely, we are around the table on all of these plans,” and added that she would be willing to work with the UK Government on piloting mass testing in Scotland.
The leaked Scottish Government document about Moonshot said: “The level of ambition set out in the document is enormous, and it is unclear how and whether it could be delivered within the proposed timescales.”
The report added that the Scottish Government would need a “dedicated team, and need them fast” to “identify opportunities for engagement”.
However, experts urged caution yesterday. Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, said: “I would suggest the Scottish Government is cautious about Moonshot, and quite sceptical. There’s very little detail in the Moonshot proposal. I think it’s pie in the sky.
“The Scottish Government has not been perfect throughout all of this but they’ve certainly looked at things carefully and I would expect them to do the same thing here.”
Professor Stephen Reicher, of the University of St Andrews, who advises the UK and Scottish Governments, said: “Quite frankly, Moonshot is a fantasy at the moment. It depends on testing technology that does not exist now.
“It puts the Scottish Government in a really difficult position because testing is important, but I would say to them: hold your nerve and do the simple things well because that’s what is going to get us through this.”
Professor of Public Health
Allyson Pollock said: “I don’t think the Scottish Government should be supporting Moonshot. It’s a strategy that’s really not thought through.”
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) warned on Friday that mass testing may not enjoy public support because some people won’t want to take time off work to quarantine, and it will likely reveal higher rates of infection in areas of high deprivation where many in Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) groups reside which it said “has the potential to fuel existing racial tensions”.
Restrictions on people meeting indoors in Lanarkshire were announced on Friday amid a rise in cases in that health board area.
It came after lockdown restrictions in Glasgow, East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire were continued for a further week on Monday, having first been introduced on September 1. The area covered by the rules was extended to Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire on Monday.
Writing on Twitter yesterday, Ms Sturgeon said: “Please heed all the public health advice. More than ever we must remember that what we do as individuals just now affects the wellbeing of everyone. Let’s look after each other.
“Covid is on the rise again across the UK and Europe. Keeping it under control requires care and vigilance from all of us. And bluntly, it means restricting as far as possible our interactions with other households.”
Meanwhile, a contact tracing app unveiled by the Scottish Government on Friday has been downloaded by 800,000 Scots as the First Minister urged people to sign up. She tweeted: “This means approx 20% of adult population is using it already and we know it will make a difference at that level. But the more who use it, the bigger that difference will be. Please encourage friends & family.”
However, a computer scientist at Trinity College Dublin said a series of tests had found the Bluetooth technology used in the app is often unable to accurately assess distances between two smartphones.
Stephen Farrell said his research in Ireland, where a near-identical app made by the same developer has been in use since July, had revealed the problem, and warned some people could needlessly be told to self-isolate, while others could be missed.
It also showed public transport was a “terrible environment” for the technology as metal inside vehicles interfered with Bluetooth.
There’s very little detail. I think it’s pie in the sky
He said: “We don’t know if the level of reliability is so bad that it’s going to be not useful, or good enough that it might be a bit useful.”
The UK Government said: “We are increasing capacity to 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, and the ability to get rapid, on-thespot results, will significantly increase our ability to fight coronavirus, stop the spread and for our economy to recover.
“We continue to work closely with Scotland and all the devolved nations on all aspects of the development and expansion of the UK’s national testing programme.”
The Scottish Government said: “We are fully engaged across the UK and globally to ensure we have the most upto-date technology to deliver our testing programme.
“That includes the UK Government’s Operation Moonshot programme. While we continue to discuss with the UK Government plans to roll out parts of the programme in Scotland as part of wider UK testing, our primary focus right now is on ensuring the current testing programme is as effective as we need it to be.”