England should bring in Wood to smash them at the breakdown

That is why I think England might play Tom Wood at seven, alongside Billy Vunipola and Chris Robshaw in the back row. Wood is a scrapper and he will be told to smash the first breakdown and then Robshaw can come in at the second breakdown.

Wasps’ Nathan Hughes will be a possibility, but I do not think he will necessarily be as accurate at the breakdown, whether he is used at the first or second of them. But I can see him being on the bench and coming on as a potent ball-carrier once the game breaks up.

Whoever South Africa pick, there will be plenty of physicality, with Willem Alberts and Warren Whiteley likely to play in that back row. Yes, South Africa might be proud of their work at the contact area, but they are not too fond of being bettered at the set piece, either. They always contest hard at the line-out and will do so with even greater fierceness through the power of Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager, especially with both Itoje and George Kruis out for England, two superb line-out operators, with Kruis so clever at his calling and planning and Itoje an absolute menace on opposition ball.

If Courtney Lawes does not make it on Saturday, I would have no hesitation in picking Bath’s Dave Attwood in his place. Joe Launchbury is a certainty, and some might say that both Launchbury and Attwood are front jumpers at the line-out and cannot be paired together, but I will give you a little example of how that thinking can be flawed.

Go back to the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in 2009. For the first Test we decided to pair Wales’ Alun Wyn Jones with the captain, Ireland’s Paul O’Connell. It was a very close decision, because England’s Simon Shaw was pushing hard, but we picked Jones because he was a middle jumper and the other two were both front jumpers.

But South Africa had Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield in the second row and they were a real handful physically. South Africa controlled the set piece in that first Test.

We brought in Shaw for the last two Tests and he was outstanding. South Africa did not control the set piece then. Sometimes you just have to go with the size and physicality and not be so concerned with questions of balance and line-out options.

Even though he might not have the presence that Shaw had, Attwood is no dummy and he is an excellent scrummager. And Wood at seven can help the line-out options if that is deemed too much of a problem.

I think it is important that Dylan Hartley plays as captain and hooker, so that Launchbury and Attwood could give England a real security about their set piece, and from that the home side can dominate and win.

If they get all these parts of their game right, I can actually see them winning by 8-10 points.