First two breakdowns will be crucial

Jones has big call to make in the back row against South Africa and must go for Attwood at the line-out

South Africa are always powerful at the contact areas. They pride themselves on their ferocity and physicality at the breakdowns. So England simply have to get these areas right to allow their subsequent phase plays, whether running or kicking, to put consistent tactical pressure on the Springboks.

South Africa have injuries in the back row, just like England do, with Francois Louw, Jaco Kriel and Marcell Coetzee all out at openside flanker. So the contest at openside is going to be very difficult to predict, with so much uncertainty also surrounding England’s selection there, because James Haskell is injured and his pencilled-in replacement, Maro Itoje, is out too.

It may be that Roelof Smit plays at openside for the Springboks, and he is a genuine fetcher, who had an outstanding Currie Cup season, effecting more turnovers than any other player in that competition.

So while they may have a genuine openside, England will only have a six-and-a-half at best, as they have only had for some time, which Eddie Jones has made some fun of, but it could prove a significant challenge for his side this time.

Both sides are clearly targeting their defensive work, with England bringing in the Melbourne Storm rugby league coach Jason Ryles to assist Paul Gustard, and South Africa having recently said they were going to work hard on their defensive work in light of their 57-15 defeat by New Zealand and having sacked their defence coach, Chean Roux, and brought in JP Ferreira in his place.

Defence begins at the breakdown, as Saracens and New Zealand so readily prove every time they play. The tackler and the next two players in, and what happens around that breakdown, are critical.

Because there will be changes on both sides in the back row, it will be the side who adapt best in that area who will control the game and dictate the tactical decision-making. So they will determine whether there is slow or quick ball, whether there are turnovers, whether there is a quick defensive line speed, whether there are secondary carries. All that will depend upon how the back row do at the first two breakdowns.

England will look to secure quick ball at those first two breakdowns so that they can stretch the South African defence. Generally South Africa like their big men to track from 15-metre line to 15-metre line, so if England get those two breakdowns right they could get into the outside channel and around South Africa’s defence.