Wenger: We will always outgun Tottenham
Wenger’s side face Spurs today knowing that their season is at a critical stage, writes Jeremy Wilson
Arsène Wenger has claimed that Arsenal will always have it in their own hands to be stronger than Tottenham Hotspur even after their rivals move to a bigger stadium in 2018.
The newly-developed ground at White Hart Lane will have a capacity of 61,000 which, either by coincidence or design, will make it marginally larger than Arsenal’s 60,000 Emirates as the biggest club ground in London.
Tottenham have never finished above Arsenal since Wenger became manager in 1996 and go into today’s Premier League match having also only won seven of the 48 north London derbies in that 20-year period.
So could they ever become a bigger club than Arsenal? “I don’t think about Tottenham like that. I think about Arsenal and making us as big as possible, making us stronger,” said Wenger. “We have maybe the strongest fan base in London, and as long as we do our job Arsenal will always be the stronger.”
Such certainty is likely to antagonise fans of Tottenham, who currently have the only unbeaten team in the Premier League and needed only to draw against relegated Newcastle United on the final day of last season to finish above Arsenal for the first time since 1995. As it was, they lost 5-1 and Arsenal finished second behind Leicester City.
Wenger believes that the size of a club will always be shaped by on-field achievement and he has the evidence of three Premier League titles and six FA Cups against Tottenham’s two League Cups during his two decades.
“No position is guaranteed,” said Wenger. “It’s about doing our job, but at the end of the day everything is decided by what happens on the pitch. That is what the size of a club is about – consistency at the top level. That is just down to us.”
Tottenham’s increasing challenge to Arsenal, however, is undeniable. They have at least finished in the top six for the past seven seasons – a period in which Arsenal have always finished between second and fourth.
In Mauricio Pochettino, Spurs also appear more settled with their manager and Wenger believes that should make for a better rivalry. He has also warned his players that little can be concluded from Arsenal’s superior recent form. While Tottenham have not won since beating Manchester City more than a month ago, Arsenal have won 12 out of their last 14 games.
“The better the two teams are, the better the derby will be,” he said. “At the moment both teams are doing well so that’s why I think that this one is more interesting. You do not go into this game believing Spurs might have more spectators or fans.
“Instead you focus on you performance. No matter what happens, it is too early to make a prognosis on what will happen at the end of the season.”
One question at Arsenal rarely ever changes. Will it be different this year? Not against Tottenham Hotspur, whom they play today and have finished above for 21 straight seasons, but in maintaining a challenge to win the Premier League again. Their current league form of eight wins and a draw in nine matches might be championship-winning, but a cursory glance over the club’s recent history reveals two likely pinch-points ahead.
The first has arrived. The month of November, during which they historically have their lowest points tally of any period in the season. If that does not decisively derail their challenge, any recovery between December and February is generally ended in early spring once the Champions League and FA Cup also intensify.
It is why this looming sequence of fixtures, that starts at noon today against Tottenham and includes matches against Manchester United, Paris StGermain, Bournemouth and Southampton, represents the first substantive test of a squad that Arsène Wenger rates as the most in-depth of his two decades at the club.
“By the end of November we will know more about ourselves,” Wenger acknowledged this week. “I believe we are more mature than previous seasons but that’s what we want to show over a longer distance. That’s what is at stake.
“It’s exciting as well. I am sure that this team can face the history, and we also have an opportunity to make history by showing that we can do better than we have done before.”
The statistics are stark, and Wenger’s hesitancy to elaborate on the subject before facing Tottenham today was a clear sign that it is an issue he does not want to enter the minds of his players.
Yet over the course of 78 Premier League matches in November since 1996, Arsenal have picked up 1.59 points per match. Their next lowest is 1.88 in August, while the average for the other nine months is 2.03. Even stranger is that November follows two of Arsenal’s traditionally strongest months of September and October (2.14 points per game and 2.15 respectively).
Evidence compiled for The Telegraph by Premier League Injuries suggests that the issue is more physical than mental. Over the last four years, Arsenal have suffered 34 injuries in November and lost players for a combined 836 days. The correlation between injuries and a dip in form was obvious last year, when Alexis Sánchez, Francis Coquelin, Santi Cazorla and Mikel Arteta all suffered long-term injuries.
Arsenal had also already begun November without Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Theo Walcott, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Danny Welbeck, Tomas Rosicky and David Ospina.
Wenger’s ability to manage a diminished squad has been further compromised by November being the month outside December and April in which they have previously played most matches. A similarly imposing schedule awaits, but Wenger’s optimism will be fuelled this year by two key differ- ences. The first is how, aside from the opening day of the season, when his se- lection of Aaron Ramsey backfired, he has resisted the temptation to rush back players and has struck a better balance in rotating. Ramsey and Olivier Giroud were effectively afforded full pre-seasons during September and October in an attempt to insulate them against injury problems for the rest of the season. They are now back to give Arsenal a feeling that key players are being added as well as lost during this critical phase of the season.
The second related change is the added squad depth. The injury crisis last year suddenly left Arsenal hugely reliant on Mathieu Flamini in central midfield. There were previously periods when Nacho Monreal or Mathieu Debuchy were playing out of position in central defence, or Calum Chambers in midfield, but it is hard this season to envision Arsenal looking so weakened.
Even if Cazorla does miss today’s match, there are Ramsey, Granit Xhaka and Mohamed Elneny competing to start alongside Coquelin. The options in other positions are similarly extensive, following a period when Arsenal have generally only added players and not been forced into significant sales.
Aside from the question mark over their mentality when it matters, another critical challenge is for Wenger to effectively rotate certain key players. Could Mesut Özil or Sánchez, for example, be given a break, or does he push on with playing his talismans in every Premier League and Champions League fixture? Other details that are more peculiar to the emotion of a derby could also be decisive today.
Wenger spoke of how it was all in Arsenal’s hands to remain stronger than Spurs in the long-term, even after their rivals move into a larger stadium in 2018. “We have a strong fan base, maybe the strongest in London, and as long as we do our job Arsenal will always be the stronger,” said Wenger. “No position is guaranteed. Everything is decided by what happens on the pitch. That is what the size of a club is about, consistency at the top level.”
There was also a warning to his players about the likely intensity of the occasion, especially as the likes of Shkodran Mustafi and Xhaka have never experienced a north London derby. “You keep your discipline and composure,” he said. “It is important to keep that balance between motivation, attitude; being composed and relaxed. Sometimes you can have games that
are heated from the first to the last minute, and sometimes you have just two or three moments when it becomes heated, but you have to master the situation when it happens.”
And, as well as the chance to go five points clear of Tottenham, there is the opportunity to confront that November hoodoo. “I am aware of that, but we have to show the effectiveness of our performances on the pitch – it is to win or not to win that gives that verdict,” said Wenger.