Murray’s mindset is critical in battle to dethrone great rival
Five key factors will decide the success of world No 1’s attempt to end Djokovic’s formidable reign at slam
In theory, the Australian Open is the unpredictable slam. As the players return from their off-seasons with precious few matches behind them, boundless possibilities hang in the air. In 1976, the champion was Mark Edmondson, a local unknown who cleaned windows to help cover his costs.
This sense of lawlessness is still borne out by the women’s tournament, which has thrown up five different winners over the past six years. Among the men, however, the ‘Big Four’ – and Novak Djokovic in particular – have shut it down. Yes, Stan Wawrinka did nip in for a shock title in 2014. But the quarter-final then is Djokovic’s only defeat in Melbourne since 2010. Time and again he has faced Andy Murray – the world’s second-best hard-court player over that period – in the final. Time and again he has won.
So while the first day’s chat in Melbourne will cover all sorts of wild scenarios, chances are that the two dominant figures on the men’s tour are heading for another face-off. They met at November’s ATP World Tour Finals, where Murray secured the year-end No 1 ranking. They collided again last week in Doha, where Djokovic demonstrated that he had shaken off his recent malaise. What can we expect to happen if/when the rivalry renews itself a fortnight from today? Here is The Sunday Telegraph’s checklist of essential factors.
The teams
Ivan Lendl looms large for Murray, while Djokovic comes to Melbourne with the classic coaching line-up that originally carried him to world No 1 five years ago. There is no Boris Becker, the head coach who received a P45 during the off-season. Instead we have long-time mentor Marian Vajda, supplemented by his regular assistant, Dusan Vemic. Thus far there have been no sightings of Pepe Imaz, the so-called guru who believes in meditation, long hugs and T-shirts emblazoned with the slogan Amor y Paz (Love and Peace).
This is a shame, because it is tempting to imagine a locker-room meeting between the new-agey Imaz and the fiercely conservative Ivan Lendl, who probably sees Donald Trump as a bed-wetting liberal.
Returning to the Murray camp for the first time this season, Lendl will refrain from adjusting his client’s forehand. (“I don’t do any technique, zero,” he confessed in June.) But his very presence always seems to offer inspiration, while giving Djokovic pause for thought. While the overall score in this rivalry stands at 25-11 in Djokovic’s favour, his lead is far narrower – just four wins to three – when Lendl is courtside.
The form
Both men are red-hot. The Doha final a week ago was a treat to watch. It is some 35 years since Lendl pioneered the art of the power-baseliner, using the new graphite rackets to generate heavy topspin and outflank the servevolley orthodoxy. Tennis has changed surprisingly little since then, but Murray and Djokovic are refining the art to new levels.
In Doha, they both timed their shots so effortlessly that the rallies took on the punishing, relentless texture of squash. The ball would go cross-court, backhand to backhand, for a spell before someone redirected it up the line and they promptly settled into a forehand-to-forehand exchange instead. It was Djokovic who finished on top, and deservedly so, but the margins were so small that both men could be satisfied. It is the rest of the field that should be worried.
The psychology
Murray must live up to his billing as the top seed at the Australian Open. He has never been granted that status at a grand slam before, and it will never happen again if he allows what John McEnroe once called the “icy winds [at] the peak of the mountain” to disconcert him. But there is no reason why he should.
As the oldest first-time No 1 since John Newcombe more than 40 years ago, Murray has served his apprenticeship. He is a father, a proven champion, a battler who has overcome years of frustration to reach the top of his profession. He feels like he belongs here. So if the top two seeds come face to face, the usual Australian Open dynamic – in which Djokovic’s dominant record gives him a mental edge – ought not to apply. From Murray’s perspective, it had better not apply. To bring up Henry Ford’s old saw, “Whether you think you can, or you think you can’t – you’re right.”
The venue
It is Novak’s front room. Few players have ever planted their flag on a tennis court to the extent that Djokovic has here. In any list of location-based love affairs, his romance with Rod Laver Arena would be close to the top. Six wins at the Australian Open qualify him for the Bowie knife and the cork hat, like a swarthier Crocodile Dundee. (While on the subject of crocodiles, The Sunday Telegraph understands that he will soon be sporting them on his kit, as a new clothing deal with Lacoste is in the pipeline.) For Murray, meanwhile, this is a place of mixed memories. He enjoys coming to Australia, because his win-loss record here (45-11) is the best of the three overseas slams. And yet he has never yet managed to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup. The reason? He keeps getting Novaked. In five meetings between them at this tournament, he has won four sets to Djokovic’s 15.
The draw
Advantage Murray, by a short head. The potential was there for some blockbusting early collisions in the tournament, given the relatively low seedings of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. But the ‘Big Four’ landed relatively far apart in the draw – a bonus for the event organisers who rely on their charisma – and so the main story was Djokovic’s awkward opener against Fernando Verdasco, the man who held (and wasted) five match points against him in Doha a week ago. Beyond that, the balance evens up a little. Murray might have a comfortable-looking start against the little-known Illya Marchenko, but he could potentially face Roger Federer in the quarter-finals. Whereas Djokovic’s last-eight opponent – assuming he goes that far, which he has always done since his breakthrough title here in 2008 – would probably be Dominic Thiem or David Goffin. Both good players, but men he has never lost to.