Always the bridesmaids, Clermont need to risk all to halt Saracens machine
Premiership side go into Saturday’s Champions Cup final as massive favourites and French rivals’ only chance for glory is to go for broke
Saracens still on the rise and will start as favourites
Saracens, in my opinion, are the best team in Europe and it does not feel like their time at the top is drawing to a close. What I mean by that is there is no sense that they are hanging on to their crown as Europe’s top team, as Toulon were in recent seasons, for instance, desperately trying to protect their status as top dogs. If anything, Saracens are still on the way up; still building a dynasty. They will go into next Saturday’s final as heavy favourites, no question. The strength of Saracens’ game, as I wrote last week, is their collective intensity; the incredible chemistry of the group. When placed under the most intense pressure, they do not panic. They trust in their processes. They are accurate. They have a collective will that other teams struggle to match. As we saw in their semi-final against Munster, they are capable of soaking up an enormous amount of pressure in a hostile environment. They wait for space and they wait for errors, and then they exploit them. That approach demands such accuracy from their opponents and very few are up to the task.
Clermont must gamble on a high-risk, high-reward game
It is a good matchup, though. Because for all that Saracens are brilliant, Clermont are capable of playing a brand of attacking rugby that is a second faster than anything Saracens will have come across this season. In fact Clermont are probably the most attractive team to watch in Europe. They play a high-tempo, high-octane, high-power game that other teams struggle to contain. For the first 40 to 50 minutes of their semi-final, Leinster were chasing shadows. And Leinster are a serious team. Remember, the Irish province enjoyed 70 per cent possession against Wasps in their quarter-final. Clermont have a hugely potent backline, even without Noa Nakaitaci and Wesley Fofana, who are both still absent injured – Morgan Parra, Camille Lopez, Rémi Lamerat, Aurélien Rougerie, and a back three of David Strettle, Nick Abendanon and Scott Spedding. Saracens cannot afford to kick poorly, that is for sure, because Clermont can be ruthless on the counter-attack. My gut feeling is that Clermont will – and should – play a more open game than Saracens, take more risks. Yes, that also entails the possibility of more errors. But it is their only hope. If they fail to get a 10-point lead on Saracens in Edinburgh then I do not think they will win.
Fascinating tactical battle lies in store
Clermont’s best opportunities to stop Saracens’ line speed and force them to retreat in defence will come from first-phase attack, especially line-outs. If they can do that, it will allow their forwards and backs to run at arms rather than square shoulders, which in turn makes the offloading and support passing – which is still intrinsic to French forward play – a genuine threat. Saracens may well try to dominate possession and territory in the early stages in an effort to frustrate Clermont’s attacking intent. Mark McCall’s team will want to entice Clermont to throw the 40 per cent passes to free up their game.
Kicking-wise, Owen Farrell will want to turn the back three, while Richard Wigglesworth will put up kicks for which his wings and centres can compete. As always, accuracy will be key and this comes from the half-backs being given consistent, controlled
Saracens cannot afford to kick poorly, that is for sure, because Clermont can be ruthless on the counter
possession from the forwards. It could well be a kicking game which comes into play after five-plus phases as this is when the front-foot kicking options become available and Clermont are less likely to be well structured. The tactical challenge between the two teams is going to be fascinating.
Can Clermont shed the bridesmaids’ tag?
I made a point last week about Saracens having earned their spurs on the biggest stage, having lost a few domestic and European finals before breaking through. The trouble is, if you do not get that monkey off your back then sooner or later, it can become a mental obstacle. That is what has happened at Clermont, the eternal bridesmaids. It took them 100 years and 11 attempts to win their first championship, back in 2010, a title for which Vern Cotter and Joe Schmidt deserve huge credit. But Schmidt then departed for Leinster, breaking up their partnership, and any hopes their fans might have harboured that that breakthrough would herald a spectacular change in fortunes have been cruelly dashed. Clermont have twice been runners-up in the Champions Cup since that time, losing on both occasions to Toulon, in 2013 and again in 2015 a year in which they again – for an 11th time in 12 attempts – finished runners-up in the Top 14. That sort of record in finals can only be a psychological barrier. It can feel like a curse. And once people start talking that way, then it can affect the players. They badly need to win this match. It is a last-chance saloon for someone like Rougerie, who is already 36.
Edinburgh will feel French – but Saracens will not care
For the aforementioned reasons, Clermont’s fans will be absolutely desperate. Rugby is huge in that part of France and their fans are good travellers. They are likely to travel in big numbers to Edinburgh. And that support will be crucial for Clermont. Saracens probably will not have anything like the same number of fans at Murrayfield. But then they did not have huge support at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin and were able to deal with that. McCall’s team have reached an incredible point where they are able to flick a switch. We had that for a bit at Wasps where everything we did was incredibly focused and intense. Everyone knew their roles, believed in each other, fought for each other and backed themselves. I do not think the crowd, or the fact that Saracens are fighting on two fronts, will make any difference. We saw what their ‘second string’ did against Northampton recently and it was mightily impressive. It is difficult to look past them.