Tactical guide to the today’s final

Racket

If you look at the period when Rafael Nadal lost form, dating back to 2015, he had switched his racket frame and his strings. And this is not a man who likes change or unpredictability. Even his water bottles always have to be facing the same way. In the off-season, Rafa made another amendment, adding lead tape to the head of the racket to give him more snap in his shots. And because he took extra time away from the tour, he gave himself two months to adapt. On his return in Australia he already looked like the real Rafa again.

Serve

We do not spend enough time discussing this area because of Rafa’s other gifts, but he has been superconsistent all season, landing 69 per cent of his first serves. The difficulty for Stan Wawrinka is to work out his return strategy. He likes to stand on the baseline and chip balls back, but he cannot get much pace on the ball and Rafa will then be able to hit forehands on the next shot 80 to 90 per cent of the time. Stan might be better off dropping deep and hitting high returns with a lot of spin, in the hope of achieving neutrality in the rally.

Forehand

Still a terrific weapon for Nadal, because of its highkicking spin, and the reason why he has a 26-0 record in Paris against opponents with single-handed backhands. Stan has to avoid lengthy crosscourt rallies where he is trying to muscle high backhands all the time. He will need to run around the backhand more often (as shown in the graphic above), to suffocate the spin a bit. He will sacrifice court position, but he can then use his insideout forehand to push Rafa wide.

Backhand

In 2015, Rafa made a switch to his service position in the ad court, serving from a wide position in the hope of neutralising Novak Djokovic’s return game. It did not work. Rafa lost his serve down the ‘T’ as a result, and found himself hitting backhands on the next shot all the time. But there was an upside in the long run: he got better at hitting backhands, particularly on that tricky third shot of the rally, when you are trying to get your feet straight after the serve. He is much more comfortable off that wing than before, and harder to attack.

Tactics

Just keep it simple. Nadal does not have to do anything different. His unforced error count this tournament is half of Stan’s. He will concentrate on the crosscourt forehand, and use the forehand up the line to spread play. Stan needs to avoid being pushed deep – both the men who have beaten Rafa at Roland Garros, Djokovic and Robin Soderling, maintained an average position within a metre of the baseline – and play smart rather than ultra-aggressive. If you look for haymakers every ball, like Dominic Thiem, you will hurt yourself and make Rafa’s life easier. Through the clay-court season, the guys who troubled him were the ones who built rallies with flight, angles and off-pace balls – though not slice, because Rafa eats slice for breakfast. It will not be easy.

La Décima could be only three sets away.

Mark Petchey will be commentating on the French Open final for ITV