What Jones’ men must do to take historic third title
Securing that hat-trick will be incredibly tough – everyone is out to knock England off their perch
Playing Italy first up in Rome is not the kindest draw, as Scotland found out to their cost in 2000 when Italy marked their Six Nations debut with a 34-20 victory over us. I remember we missed all our kicks and Diego Dominguez punished us with six penalties, a conversion and three drop goals. They deserved it, too. There was only going to be one winner in the final 10 minutes as the Italian team were buoyed by the ever-increasing excitement generated by the crowd.
Nor are Scotland the only team to have gone down in Italy. Wales and France have both lost there as well.
Italy will be at their freshest today. The injuries that can build up during a Six Nations – which, of course, affect Italy more than other teams because they have a smaller pool of players – have not yet bitten. When the match kicks off this afterno on they will be on the same footing as any other team. It is easy to underestimate how that can make players feel.
The longer Italy can stay in the game, the more encouragement they will get and the more the crowd will believe. I’m not suggesting England will lose, but they certainly can’t afford any complacency.
That isn’t Eddie Jones’s style, anyway. He is the first to admit England are not the finished article and he will be challenging them to do all of the basics today to the absolute best of their ability. We all remember what happened at Twickenham last year. Italy did a marvellous job of disrupting England’s rhythm by choosing not to compete at the breakdown – and no doubt Conor O’Shea and Brendan Venter will have drawn up a game plan today to try to contain their visitors and keep England thinking.
I think England’s plan is clear. The selection of Ben Te’o gives a very clear indication as to Jones’s thinking. He doesn’t want Italy messing around at the breakdown. He doesn’t want to play a wider game going backwards against 14 defenders. He wants front-foot ball. Te’o has been selected to give England that. With Billy Vunipola and Nathan Hughes injured, he wants the extra powerful carrier as an option for Owen Farrell and George Ford. Te’o will give them that option. If he can get England over the gain-line and give the team front-foot ball, allowing them to accelerate the game, that will soften the impact of losing those two No8s.
Jonathan Joseph is a wonderful player but it’s a case of horses for courses. I thought Te’o played really well on the Lions tour. In the right circumstances, with two playmakers at 10 and 12, he has shown what a powerful runner he can be. The task of accelerating the game will fall to England’s back row and, once again, I can see the rationale behind Jones’s selection. I think he has found a logical balance in the absence of a whole host of players. Jones will want England to play at a high tempo today and to do that you have to win the breakdown contest. If they can do that, and generate quick ball, that will isolate a lot of the Italian forwards. England can then cause Italy problems in the outside channels.
I agree with the selection of Courtney Lawes at No6 for two reasons: first, I think he’s probably a more natural ball-carrier than Maro Itoje; second, I think Itoje plays his best rugby from the second row.
Itoje’s great strengths are his game sense and his physicality. He is very effective phase play, after the first two phases. But the back five of England’s scrum are all good at the breakdown. They will look to keep Italy’s captain (and one truly world-class player) Sergio Parisse tied up at the bottom of rucks and away from open field as far as possible. And, in possession, they will try to generate quick ball.
Chris Robshaw is always described as a six-and-a-half, but I think the way Jones wants him to play a six-and-ahalf will be fine. He can carry a bit and he will likely be first at the breakdown, clearing the player rather than going for the ball. Sam Underhill will look to make a physical impact off the bench. Talking of making an impact off the bench, this is where England hold all the aces. Jamie George, in particular, is likely to come on after 50 or 60 minutes, and he can add some zip and tempo. This is traditionally the period of the match when Italy tire, both physically and mentally.
And England have the players to punish them if they do. I’m a big fan of George, incidentally, although I think Jones is right to stick with Dylan Hartley as captain and starting hooker. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Harry Williams and Alec Hepburn, who will be making his debut today, will also be desperate to show what an impact they can make, while there are a host of possibilities in the backs. I rate Mike Brown very highly. He is very good at recognising the short side and playing one pass out. He will always give you a 7-out-of-10 performance and Jones clearly trusts him. But, if the situation allows, it would be interesting to see Anthony Watson at 15. He offers something completely different in the outside channels: the type of player who can sidestep and then accelerate away. He is a game-changer, as is Danny Care, who can really speed the game up. Bringing Care on at 9, Joseph at 13, Jack Nowell at 14 and moving Watson to full-back would be a dynamic tactical change in the latter part of the game.