Welsh hopes rest on combating England’s

Gatland’s men must show they can compete at the breakdown to stifle and unsettle rampant visitors

England have won their opening two matches in this Guinness Six Nations, away in Ireland and at home to France, in spectacular fashion. But against Wales on Saturday they are going to face an altogether different proposition. Or at least, they should do. Wales cannot have failed to notice that England’s superiority has been built on overwhelming physical dominance. So to win the game it stands to reason Warren Gatland’s men are going to have to find a way of combating that physicality.

Here I take a look at the key areas of the match at the Principality Stadium, but it is important to stress that all of these areas are interrelated.

England’s kicking game, for instance, has been much commented on in their opening two encounters (and it has been incredible; I counted 55 kicks from hand in the two matches from Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell alone). But it has only been so effective because the speed and variety of their phase play has been so good. And the speed and variety of their phase play has only been so good because they have been so dominant physically … and so on.

Defence/ breakdown

Shaun Edwards has always maintained that defences win championships and he is right. In fact the major reason I backed Wales at the start of this Six Nations was because of their defence. Their attack was hit and miss in the autumn, and has remained so in the opening two rounds. But if you can win games 9-6 against Australia, as Wales did in the autumn, then you are doing something right. Wales stop teams from scoring because they are so disciplined and structured. But really it will all depend on whether they can compete with England at the breakdown. Everything comes back to those collisions at the contact area.

England’s improvement in this area is the major reason they are so much better than last year. Where their breakdown was slow and stodgy 12 months ago, now it is fast and furious.

The difference is that, in the past, the first two England players arriving at the breakdown used to hover over the ball. It would then become a fight in the space over the ball. By contrast, Ireland and Scotland both had success last year by clearing players away from the breakdown. England took note – they are not messing about any more and had 46 dominant hits against Ireland (to Ireland’s six). You just do not see that in international rugby. Obviously, the returning Billy Vunipola has had a big impact, as have Mako Vunipola and Manu Tuilagi. The opening period in the Ireland game really summed up England’s new approach: when Tuilagi took the ball into contact, two English players blasted the Irish defenders away, and Tuilagi was then able to pop the ball up to Youngs. The difference in creating that quick ball can be two seconds, and at international level that is light years.

Looking at the statistics, no one England player is dominating the numbers. It is a shared commitment. But Tom Curry and Mark Wilson’s contributions deserve special mention. They have been a genuine physical presence, providing a balance to the back row lacking before, and an intensity to the collision.

The Irish and French had so little impact at the breakdown, which meant they were forever on the back foot. How do Wales combat this? Well, they have to find a way of stopping England’s line speed. They need to get England on the floor quickly and a second man on the ball quickly. Basically they need to slow the ball down, which is where their back row comes in.

Back row

We do not know who Gatland is going to pick here but I would expect Josh Navidi at six, Justin Tipuric at seven and Ross Moriarty at eight. That is giving away a lot of bulk to England’s expected back row of Wilson, Curry and Billy Vunipola. But Navidi is one tough player, Tipuric is world class and playing well and I have always liked Moriarty.

As a collective, though, Wales will need to be up and at England’s back row early. I think Edwards will have his players working at leg tackles in particular, trying to get England’s carriers to the floor and keeping them there. When they have possession, the Welsh first-up carries into contact will be key because this is an area in which England have been really dominant.

England have dictated the game when not in possession, forcing Ireland and France backwards in possession, which is psychologically very significant.

I fancy Wales may try to move England about, releasing the likes of Tipuric into the outside channels off first or second phase, while England’s pack are still in one place. This is where the set-piece is critical.

Set-piece

The Welsh front five are going to be under pressure (although Mako Vunipola’s injury is massive because of his huge game involvement), but I think Wales will win enough set-piece ball. It is about how they use it. They will want ball down and out quickly. Why? Because the advantage of the set-piece is that you can control where England’s forwards are. Having got them in one place you can play the ball somewhere else. Get two passes out, get Tipuric and Navidi into the outside channels, stop those huge collisions. This is what New Zealand did so effectively in the second half at Twickenham last autumn and England failed to adapt.

Tactical kicking

Kicking from first-phase possession through your nine or 10 is predictable and easy to defend against. What England have been doing so well thus far is kicking from fourth, fifth, sixth-phase ball – and from multiple areas of the pitch.

This England team effectively have five or six kickers, with Henry Slade