It’s going to be a battle, and I am predicting a home win
With so much riding on this game for both sides, the hosts may just edge a contest England must win
The result is everything for England today. I cannot stress that enough. Forget about building for the future. Forget about France 2023. This is about Paris 2020. Of course, the match presents an opportunity to build on what England did so well in Japan; that fast-paced, explosive game they used to beat Australia and New Zealand on successive weekends.
Eddie Jones is going to want to see his team play attractive, positive, heads-up rugby. But, first and foremost, they need to win the game.
There is no doubt Eddie would take an ugly win. Do that and the grand slam opens up for England, as it did for Wales 12 months ago after sneaking that win in Paris on the opening day. Today is definitely one of those games where the performance is secondary to the result.
Eddie knows that. It is why he has been talking about “beating France up” and “brutal physicality”. Test matches are always brutal, of course, particularly ones between England and France. Eddie is just trying to set the right tone; he is trying to get the players in a frame of mind from which their game can, once again, grow. It is going to be a battle at the Stade de France.
This France side looks very different from the team who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Wales 12 months ago. Fabian Galthie’s team will be buoyed by a World Cup campaign where again they really ought to have beaten Wales, and by the recruitment of two top-class individuals in Raphael Ibanez and Shaun Edwards. It is going to be fascinating seeing what kind of an impact those two have on the squad, and how quickly. I rather suspect it will be very quickly.
In fact, I am predicting a home win today. I do not think England will play badly necessarily, but you have to give France the credit they deserve.
Look at their line-up: frightening. France have insanely talented players, particularly in their back line. But they have always had an ability to handle the ball and play good rugby. What they have lacked in the past is clarity and organisation.
If the new coaching set-up can achieve that, France are going to be very tough to beat. Eddie will be mindful of that. England will respect France off the field as much as they do on it.
Eddie will concentrate on two things above all:
Stability at the set-piece. England’s pack has to deliver; at scrum time, at the line-out. Consistent top-class performances come from stable, reliable set-piece platforms. England have to right the wrongs of the World Cup final. If they get the set-piece right, England can then play the game we saw them play in the quarters and semis in Japan; fast, explosive phase play.
Continuity in phase play. If England can get that, if they can get the right power and intensity at the breakdown, they can harness their inherent strength, which is their incredible variety of ball-carriers. England became a different team when Manu Tuilagi returned for their opening match in Dublin 12 months ago. That match became a defining performance for this group. That is the benchmark by which their performances can be judged. They have a game which can vary between power carries, width and a varied, front-foot kicking game.
Eddie’s selection has been made with those twin goals in mind. Joe Marler instead of Mako Vunipola is a clear tactical call. What England lose in the loose they gain in terms of scrummaging. England need to work the French front five hard. They have picked a pack to do that.
Eddie has moved Courtney Lawes to the blindside, not only so he can bring in a bigger second row in Charlie Ewels, but because Lawes is a destructive menace in the loose (as well as another line-out option). He has moved Tom Curry to No8, which again makes sense, if he wants a real presence at the first two breakdowns. I do not think England will lose anything by breaking up the CurrySam Underhill flanking partnership. They will actually be even closer together at No7 and No8; Curry should make the first couple of breakdowns faster from eight than he can from six.
The problem may come if France get England going backwards at scrum time. Can Curry lock the scrum? Can he give his scrum-half time to get the ball away? That is when you need a specialist No8. But if England’s front five are comfortable, the Curry move should work OK.
In the backs, there are question marks at scrum-half as we all know. But I do not think it is as desperate as some believe it to be. Yes, England need a different scrum-half for the next World Cup, but if you look at the last World Cup cycle, some of the players were not introduced until the last 12 months. Right now, England just need to win.
With the exception of George Furbank at 15, the backs are well established. The selection of Furbank gives the opportunity to play Elliot Daly in what I believe is his strongest and most effective position, on the wing. When a fit Anthony Watson comes back into the equation it produces an extremely dynamic and well-balanced back three.
All in all, the England team have a nice balance to them. I just think it is going to be a very difficult match. The result is everything.