Back-row battle is key to victory in this mouthwatering clash
As a natural openside, Curry’s instinct is to hit every ruck but England need him to hang back
If there is one area which will determine the outcome of today’s game it is the back-row battle. The way it is shaping up is fascinating. Ireland’s back row has been brilliant thus far in the tournament. CJ Stander has been man of the match twice in succession switching between six and eight, Peter O’Mahony is a gnarly streetfighter who will not take a backward step, while I picked out Josh van der Flier as one of my players to watch in this tournament. He has not let me down. His speed and mobility provide a nice counterpoint to the other two.
As for England, you have, well... it is difficult to say for certain what you have. Sam Underhill and Tom Curry were two of the world’s best back-row players last year. And Courtney Lawes provides a big physical presence from six (as well as a useful line-out option). But Billy Vunipola’s injury and Curry’s move to eight has fundamentally altered the way England play.
The jury is out on Curry at eight. And that is no slight on Curry, who is an unbelievable athlete. But the demands of a No8 are different from a six or seven, especially given the way England like to play. Vunipola, even without being at his best last year, gave them such a huge presence. His balance for a 19st player, his carrying, his ability to get over the try line from two metres out… all were huge strengths for England.
Curry is a thoroughbred. He will run all day and hit and carry, but he does not have the same ballast. If your No7 and No8 are going to be hitting the first or second breakdown, that completely changes the dynamic of England’s breakdown work.
Curry’s instinct is to hit every ruck he can because he is a natural openside. But perhaps he needs to be more circumspect – to force himself to hang back a bit. He can become more effective when the game is a bit more broken up. While Vunipola was a wrecking ball, Curry’s strength is running at shoulders, in support, seeking turnovers in the wide channels. That is where Stander’s turnovers have mainly come from during this championship.
Curry’s other potential weakness is if England’s scrum is going backwards. If your scrum is under pressure, having a big, experienced No8 such as Vunipola comes in handy. Can Curry lock the scrum and keep control of the ball under pressure from a physical scrum-half such as Conor Murray?
The big positive for England today is Manu Tuilagi’s return, which means they have at least one of their big weapons from 2019 back.
England’s game plan last year revolved around giving the ball to Tuilagi, getting over the gain line, and then giving their big ball carriers such as Maro Itoje, George Kruis, Kyle Sinckler and Billy Vunipola quick front-foot ball. From there the game opens up. You can either play quick and wide, or kick in behind a retreating opposition. And for both teams front-foot kicking is a strength.
If England do not get that front-foot ball... well, they have not really shown they have a Plan B when Plan A fails.
Not all of it is Eddie’s fault. Injuries have forced him to shuffle things around. He has a second row at six, a seven at eight, a 10 at 12, a 13 on the wing... But mostly it comes back to the back row. Tactically they cannot play the same game with Curry at No8, and that impacts on the rest of the team.
The key for England will be to tie in Ireland’s back row. If they do, they may return to the template which took them to a World Cup final, and enabled them to hammer Ireland in Dublin 12 months ago. Fail and it is going to be a tall order against a confident Ireland team. Remember, the bulk of Ireland’s team played in that glorious 2018 season. Mind you, the bulk of them also played in 2019, so their new confidence may still be only surface deep. Andy Farrell does look to have transformed the atmosphere, though. His key players look reborn.
Murray provides another big physical threat for England in the tight channels. He and Johnny Sexton have been rejuvenated in this new, less structured system. They are prepared to look for space late. If the ball is quick you have to be in space early. If it is slow, you manipulate and then attack. Sexton’s try against Scotland was a prime example, Ireland turning a three-on-three into a five-on-two at the last moment. I am sure Ireland will look to target Jonathan Joseph on the wing.
It is an extremely difficult game to call. England did not turn up in Paris – not until the game was out of their hands, anyway – while in Edinburgh both teams battled the elements as much as each other. So, in one respect, England have the advantage in that Ireland have not really seen what they can do in this tournament. England, by contrast, know exactly what Ireland will do. They have a similar game plan to England: win the contact, get over the gain line with Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw, then let the big guys such as James Ryan and Stander take over.
It is going to be fascinating. At Twickenham, playing in front of their home supporters, you would expect a reaction. But will we see one? I suspect that will depend to a large extent on how they fare at the breakdown.