Boost Tories' hopes as women pick party as most likely winner
THE CONSERVATIVES have overtaken Labour as the party women believe has the best chance of winning the general election, according to an exclusive Sunday Telegraph poll.
With fewer than five weeks left, ICM’s Wisdom Index shows that the election is too close to call, with Labour and the Tories both forecast to achieve 32 per cent.
The research asked 2,000 people across Britain to predict the share of the vote that the major parties would win, rather than say who they will support.
In the previous survey two weeks ago, the Tories had pulled level with Labour in the eyes of female voters for only the second time in three years.
But today’s findings show that women now expect David Cameron’s party to win 32 per cent of the vote, a one-point lead over Labour on 31 per cent.
The research was carried out before last Thursday’s televised debate between seven party leaders.
In other developments on the sixth day of full-time campaigning: ÞNicola Sturgeon, the Scottish National Party leader, attempted to distance herself from claims that she secretly wanted David Cameron to remain in Downing Street. The Civil Service started a leak inquiry into how details of a confidential memorandum setting out her alleged views came to be published by The Daily Telegraph. ÞEd Miliband refused to rule out doing a deal with the SNP
after the election, saying there would be no coalition but declining to comment on other potential agreements. ÞThe Liberal Democrats launched plans to improve patients’ care closer to their homes. The party suggested that GPs should prescribe social activities such as fishing or cookery to improve patients’ wellbeing. ÞThe Conservatives announced plans for a crackdown on internet pornography, to force websites to put in place age restrictions or face being shut down. ÞIn an interview with the Mail on Sunday Samantha Cameron spoke of her heartbreak over her disabled son Ivan, who died aged six in 2009, saying it brought her marriage to “breaking point”.
In a separate interview with the Sunday Times, David Cameron said they had needed to work on their rela- tionship to keep soul together”. ÞNigel Farage, the UK Independence Party leader, visited an Easter beer festival in Margate, drinking a pint of “British Bulldog” ale.
The ICM Wisdom Index survey was conducted over the course of last weekend in the days following the first televised leaders’ debate, which involved questions from the audience and an interrogation by Jeremy Paxman.
Mr Miliband was seen to have performed better than expected during the encounter and the Wisdom Index indicates that Labour has drawn level with the Tories overall.
It is too early to tell how last Thursday’s second leaders’ debate, which involved seven parties, will influence the Wisdom Index election forecasts.
But the first debate appears to have strengthened Mr Miliband’s position. Two weeks ago the Wisdom Index gave
“body and the Conservatives a one-point lead on 32 per cent but Labour has now caught up.
There was better news for the Conservatives in the detail of this week’s poll. They have a one-point lead among socalled “C2” voters, the skilled working classes who helped deliver three victories for Margaret Thatcher.
The Tories also have a lead among voters under the age of 25, and those over the age of 65, while both main parties are tied on 32 per cent each among the 35-64 age group.
The UK Independence Party has continued its decline since Christmas, when it was forecast to win 16 per cent. In the latest poll, this falls to 12 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 14 per cent of the vote and other parties 10 per cent. ÞICM Unlimited questioned 2,009 people aged 18 and over, online, across Britain between March 27 and March 29.