DESPITE SPECULATION that Ed Miliband’s performance in the TV grilling by Jeremy Paxman had given Labour a boost, it has been David Cameron who has made progress during the past week.

According to an average of all of the polls, he started the week still a point behind Labour. By the end he was neck and neck.

Both the Tories and Labour have scored 34 per cent across all of the polls published during the last seven days.

There are even signs that the Conservatives may have narrowly pulled ahead. Of the 13 polls published in the last week, the Tories were ahead in six, Labour in only four. The two parties were tied in the remaining three.

These figures are reflected in the expectations of voters. According to our latest ICM Wisdom Index, published today, the Conservatives and Labour are both expected to win 32 per cent.

Despite their advance in the last week, the Tories need to make considerably more progress if Mr Cameron is to remain prime minister.

Thanks not least to the failure to redraw the constituency boundaries so that the number of voters in each seat is more equal, a tie in votes between the Tories and Labour would most likely still see Ed Miliband win more seats.

Even after data that suggests Labour could lose three quarters of their Scottish seats to the SNP, the latest polls point to Labour winning 295 seats, the Conservatives only 275 – and that takes no account of the possibility that a handful of Tory seats might be lost to Ukip. With the Liberal Democrats on just 16 seats, the cur- rent Coalition partners would not even have as many seats combined as Labour alone.

There would be little alternative to a Labour-led administration, albeit one dependent on the Scottish Nationalists.

The SNP and their Welsh nationalist and Green allies, projected to win 46 seats, are committed to voting down any Queen’s Speech Mr Cameron presents. He needs at least enough seats to be able to form a majority with the help of the Lib Dems and the DUP who currently have eight seats and may, perhaps, win nine.

Given their poll rating, however, the Lib Dems might fall as low as 14 seats. That suggests a potential 23 allies.

With Sinn Fein committed to not taking their seats, currently five in number, the likely target for a majority will be 323 seats. So the Conservatives have to win 300 seats themselves if Mr Cameron is to have a good chance of remaining prime minister.

To do that, the Tories will need to be as much as four points ahead of Labour. That does not look impossible but the Conservative campaign during the next four weeks will have to be a good one. John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University