Tragically, this murder is in danger of deepening divisions after polling day

Polling stations are open from 7am till 10pm. The advice is to vote early as the Electoral Commission is forecasting that turnout could be as high as 80 per cent. against the dollar. Currency traders were buying sterling because their instant assessment was that the MP’s death made it less likely Britain will vote to leave the European Union this week; market orthodoxy says Brexit would be negative for the pound.

Whether the traders were correct remains to be seen. The referendum campaign has seen erratic moves in currency markets as traders underestimate then overestimate the chances of a vote to leave. In this, the financial world is much like the political one, forever lurching between complacency and panic, and prone to seek simple explanations for complex events.

The American term for a dramatic The UK has been divided into 382 counting areas. They will first verify each ballot for turnout, then begin counting. Results will be announced from 12.30am until 6.30am. last-minute political event is an October Surprise, a phrase born in 1972 when Richard Nixon, the then US president, announced peace in Vietnam two weeks before polling day. He was re-elected comfortably, and many Democrats quickly suggested his announcement gave him an unfair advantage over their candidate, George McGovern.

These days, most historians say Mr Nixon would have won anyway, albeit by a smaller margin; October’s surprise did not change November’s result.

Assessing the possible political impact of Mrs Cox’s killing requires an understanding of where the referendum campaign stood before The tension will be greater than a general election night because the major broadcasters have not commissioned exit polls over concerns about accuracy. Traditional frontrunners Sunderland are expected to announce their result first at this time. A strong showing for Brexit could indicate Britain is on its way out of the EU. that dreadful event. Leave was winning, because more voters believed the referendum was about immigration than the economy.

People who believe immigration is the most important issue in the referendum almost all plan to vote Leave. People who believe the economy matters most almost all plan to vote Remain. Where does something as viscerally moving as a young mother’s death fit into that scheme?

Some believe a connection can be made to Remain’s tactics over immigration.

Hence David Cameron’s reference in his article today to the referendum as a choice between Hartlepool results expected. It is a key area for the Leave campaign, which has said it expects 60 per cent support here. Any less may suggest its night is going badly. the Little England vision he ascribes to Nigel Farage of Ukip and the “open, tolerant” society he says would embrace the EU. Mr Cameron won’t mind a bit if those words lead some voters to associate the Leave campaign with Mrs Cox’s alleged killer.

Mr Farage is important to the Remainers because they believe they can use him to render the Leave campaign and its focus on immigration toxic to floating voters.

More importantly still, they hope that the prospect of success for Mr Farage and his blunt message on immigration will motivate younger, Remain-inclined Britons to actually turn out to vote this week; younger Remainers’ relative reluctance to turn out has been one of Mr Cameron’s greatest fears.

So if, as some commentators and politicians have already attempted, a connection is convincingly drawn between the political rhetoric of the Leave campaign and the actions of Mrs Cox’s killer, the Remain campaign may feel some political benefit.

None will say so publicly, but some Remainers think Thomas Mair’s words at his first court appearance (“Death to traitors and freedom for Britain”) can only harm a Leave campaign that bases its case for Brexit in patriotism and national sovereignty.

Brexiteers feel deep anger at attempts to draw such connections, denying the legitimacy of such tactics even while conceding their political potency. “It’s utterly, utterly unfair and a disgusting thing for anyone to suggest, but sadly there are some people who do believe this rubbish Around 250 vehicles taking aid to Calais refugee camps were stopped at Dover yesterday after French authorities denied them entry. The convoy was instead rerouted to the French embassy in London, where activists pledged to dump their supplies on the steps. Calais police said they feared ‘violent episodes’