Leave campaign claimed victory
tested in focus groups. The most striking reaction from voters in the discussions was to Turkey’s accession to the EU. “When Turkey comes up, light the blue touch paper and take a step back,” one Vote Leave source said at the time.
“People say, ‘This is insane. This country is totally wrecked if that happens. These are countries at war, they are full of terrorists.’”
Meanwhile, Mr Cameron’s campaign had recruited Barack Obama to warn that Britain would be at the “back of the queue” for a new trade deal if it voted to leave the EU.
Vote Leave’s focus groups showed that this ploy had backfired. Voters resented the US President’s intervention and did not believe the economic “scaremongering” that the Prime Minister was putting forward, even though it was supported by the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England, among others.
But the Leave campaign had to transform public support into votes. Mr Cummings was forced to design and build a database of voters entirely from scratch in order to map exactly the streets and postcodes around the UK which were likely to vote to Leave. This enormous process of building a database of 46 million voters could not even begin until February.
But the information was critically important so that on polling day last Thursday, Vote Leave’s army of 20,000 volunteers knew which doors they had to knock on to get voters to turn out.
Mr Cummings also used cuttingedge technology to target his messages at precisely the individuals who were receptive to his messages. He hired data specialists from America and Canada, who analysed polling evidence and information from Facebook in order to build up a picture of their target voters.
By the end of the referendum campaign, Vote Leave had spent well over £1million on Facebook, YouTube and other online advertising, sources suggested. Vote Leave had attracted 553,000 “likes” on Facebook, just short of the 556,000 people who supported the official Remain campaign, Britain Stronger In Europe.
However, the “cyber war” saw the Eurosceptics benefit from their unfashionable rivals – Nigel Farage and Arron Banks’s Leave.EU campaign, which amassed 768,000 supporters on Facebook. The “air war” on television and radio was a different matter. Under the leadership of Craig Oliver, Mr Cameron’s deputy chief of staff, the Remain camp managed successfully to keep the Prime Minister out of any genuine live television “debates” during the entire campaign. To the fury of Mr Cummings, Mr Oliver – a former BBC executive – also insisted that the Prime Minister would not appear on the same stage as Mr Johnson or another senior Tory.
ITV agreed to these terms and broadcast one programme in which Cameron took questions from a studio audience after Mr Farage, who was still being resolutely sidelined by the official Leave campaign.
Instead, Downing Street sent Amber Rudd, the Energy Secretary, on to television to savage Mr Johnson in the only TV clash involving a senior Vote Leave campaigner and a Cabinet minister. Ms Rudd was criticised for suggesting Mr Johnson was motivated solely by his desire to become Prime Minister, but Mr Cameron judged that she had been “a star”.
On Thursday June 23, after years of plotting and months of hard-fought and bitter campaigning, the Eurosceptics had their referendum. Mr Cummings’ volunteers knocked on doors across the country, getting out their voters.
When the polls closed, the atmosphere inside Westminster Tower, with its views over Lambeth Bridge to Big Ben across the Thames, was subdued. The final polls suggested that Remain had just edged ahead.
Michael Gove went to bed early. Boris Johnson stayed up later, watching the analysis on television at home.
The mood inside Vote Leave’s office on the seventh floor changed dramatically as one area after another declared for Brexit. In Sunderland, 61 per cent of voters backed Leave.
At about 4am, crates of English sparkling wine, supplied by a Vote Leave donor, were opened.
“People began to believe that we had done it,” one insider said. When ITV called the result for Leave, the room erupted. “The office went a bit crazy. There was lots of cheering, and hugging. Nobody could believe it.”
Dan Hannan, the MEP and Leave campaigner, leapt on to a table and made a speech, thanking the Vote Leave campaign staff, declaring that it was “independence day” and that they had all made history.
Then everyone in the room began calling for Mr Cummings. “Dom, Dom, Dom,” they chanted.
Mr Cummings, who was in a room next door, came into the main open plan office, stood on a desk and told the staff: “This is all about you. You did this.” Then he celebrated by punching the air – and punched a hole in the low ceiling above his head.
At about 5am, aides woke Mr Gove and told him of the results. He drove into the office, while Mr Johnson was left to sleep for another couple of hours.
Mr Gove gave a speech to the team, thanking the staff. “You’ve won against all the odds and should be very proud,” he said.
Then, at 7am, Mr Gove’s phone rang. It was a friend, calling to congratulate him on his success.