Three scenarios of how MPs may choose their two candidates

THE first Conservative leadership contest for a decade gets under way this week.

MPs have to whittle down the current list of five candidates to just two, who will then face the final vote of 150,000 party members.

MPs are set to vote on Tuesday and Thursday this week and Tuesday next week to reduce the number of candidates from five to two, who then will have to win the support of the membership before the result is announced on Sept 9.

Voting in the first round closes at 6pm on Tuesday, when Graham Brady and Charles Walker, the chairman and deputy chairman of the Conservative 1922 committee of MPs, will add up the supporters and remove from the list the last-placed candidate.

Theresa May is already way ahead, with 104 MPs backing her, five times more than her nearest rivals, according to an authoritative list maintained by the Conservativehome website.

Michael Gove (27 supporters) Stephen Crabb (23 supporters) and Andrea Leadsom (21 supporters) are in a three-way tie for second place. Liam Fox is in a distant fifth, with just 11 supporters.

However, with just under half of the party’s 330 MPs still to declare, the contest is by no means over.

Here we list three possible scenarios of how the next 10 days will play out:

Scenario 1: final two selected on Tuesday next week

Dr Fox is knocked out in the first round, forcing his supporters to throw in their weight behind Mrs Leadsom as the new standard-bearer of the Right.

Mrs Leadsom is boosted by the support of as many as 30 former Boris Johnson supporters who – appalled by Mr Gove’s treachery – switch allegiance to her.

Voting continues on Thursday when Mr Crabb is knocked out of the contest. His supporters move to Mrs May, a fellow Remain supporter during the referendum campaign, and a moderniser.

A weekend of negotiation between the camps of Mr Gove, Mrs Leadsom and Mrs May fails to produce any new alliances. MPs vote on Tuesday next week. Mr Gove’s supporters recognise the party’s grassroots will not warm to the man who sank Mr Johnson and shift their backing to Mrs Leadsom. Mr Johnson declares for Mrs Leadsom, handing her a place in the final two. Final two: Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom

Scenario 2: final two selected on Thursday this week

Dr Fox is knocked out in the first round of voting on Tuesday, giving a boost to Mrs Leadsom, who has already seen her support grow from former supporters of Mr Johnson.

Mr Crabb and Mr Gove – now firmly in the bottom two – form an alliance in an appeal to modernisers against Mrs May and Mrs Leadsom. Mr Gove agrees to back Mr Crabb if he can be Chancellor of the Exchequer and lead Brexit negotiator. Mr Crabb agrees.

Supporters of Mrs Leadsom move to the Crabb camp, happy that the new ticket will reach out to blue-collar voters and concerned by Mrs Leadsom’s flagging campaign. Mrs Leadsom withdraws. Final two: Theresa May and Stephen Crabb

Scenario 3: final two selected on Tuesday this week

Dr Fox is knocked out in the first round, giving a boost to Mrs Leadsom, who is anointed by the former Tory defence secretary – and other Tory grandees – as the heiress to Margaret Thatcher.

Mrs Leadsom, with the backing of 30 former supporters of Mr Johnson in her back pocket, is now the clear second favourite.

Mr Gove’s supporters abandon him on Tuesday night, recognising the party’s membership will never back an MP who dropped Mr Johnson.

Mr Gove announces on Wednesday morning – before the 9am deadline – that he is throwing his support behind Mrs Leadsom, with the guarantee that he can lead the Brexit talks.

Mr Crabb sees the writing on the wall and pulls out also on Wednesday morning, throwing his support behind Theresa May. Mr Johnson says he also backs Mrs Leadsom as a politician who can be trusted to deliver Brexit. Final two: Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom