Protest party on course for Ukip-style German revolt

be underestimated. “Ten years ago not a single Conservative MP wanted to leave the EU. Only when Ukip got stronger did they start advocating to leave,” its retired leader said. “Then it spread like a virus and 140 Tory MPs supported Brexit in the referendum. The AfD is having a similar effect in Germany, this is just the beginning.”

That rising fear – that the AfD heralds a permanent shift to the Right – is the major concern for Mrs Merkel as she doggedly defends her open-door immigration policy and the civilised values she believes it represents.

While analysts say the AfD has scant chance of entering government in the immediate future, it is undeniably changing the tone of the debate in Germany – just as Ukip did in Britain.

“The CDU and the CSU are nervous and are already changing their policies,” said Dr Carsten Koschmieder, of the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science at the Free University of Berlin, Last month the government proposed a ban on burkas in schools, universities and while driving in what was perceived as a tokenistic – and failed – attempt to outflank the AfD.

Remarkably, the AfD’s electoral successes keep coming despite a series of disputes among the leadership over its hardline elements who have spoken about restoring a “thousand-year Germany”. Leaders such as Frauke Petry, an AfD chairman, have called for refugees to be “shot at the borders” as well as adopting a manifesto that declares Islam to be “not part of Germany”.

The party also believes it is not as far from power as many analysts suppose. Beatrix von Storch, an AfD MEP, said it could make the transition to government because its ideas are becoming more mainstream. She said: “We haven’t been around for a hundred years like the Social Democrats [SPD]. This is a stage on the way for us.”

Analysts such as Josef Janning, of the European Council for Foreign Relations in Berlin, are sceptical, arguing that Germany’s relationship with its Nazi past means the electorate, while angry at Mrs Merkel, is not as radical as the AfD. “Parties will move to the Right, but I still believe a strong majority is not calling for the recipes of the AfD.”