Unyielding Russia and US ‘heading for a new Cold War’

confrontation clear last week when he rebuked a Russian reporter who asked him why relations with Washington had collapsed because of Syria. “It is not because of Syria. This is about one nation’s attempt to enforce its decisions on the whole world,” he said.

Mr Putin came as near as possible to a formal declaration of “Cold War” on Oct 3, when he cancelled a plutonium reprocessing deal over the United State’s “unfriendly” policies.

“Ripping it up showed how angry we are because it is related to nuclear security, and the conditions attached were a way of saying ‘go to hell’,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of Russia’s council on foreign and defence policy.

Mr Putin’s meeting with Germany’s Angela Merkel and François Hollande, the French president, in Berlin last week may suggest the Kremlin still wants to keep some diplomatic channels with Western governments open.

Russia’s goal, according to a number of military, diplomatic and political sources in Moscow, is a grand bargain that would overturn what it sees as an unjust post-Cold War settlement.

However, there is little consensus on what such a settlement should look like. Some of Moscow’s publicly stated demands, such as the roll back of Nato, are entirely unacceptable to the West.

Russian experts fear the near-collapse of diplomacy has increased the dangers of a “hot” proxy war or even the nightmare scenario: direct RussianWestern warfare.

Potential flashpoints include the Baltic, where Nato and Russia have accused one another of troop builds, and eastern Ukraine, where Russia continues to supply and direct the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The most dangerous flashpoint is Syria. Bashar al-Assad, the Moscow-allied Syrian president, said last week that the conflict was already turning into a direct US-Russian confrontation.

Meanwhile, Moscow is moving to extend its influence in the Middle East.

Russia has already moved to improve relations with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s government in Egypt, sending 500 troops to the country for joint military exercises this week. There has also been speculation about reopening military bases in Cuba and Vietnam.

Those with knowledge of Russian foreign policy cautioned that Moscow was wary of getting drawn into the kind of expensive friendships it had in the Soviet era.

“In proxy situations, you invest a lot in your clients. They understand you’ve invested a lot, and they understand your motivations more than you understand theirs,” said one academic with knowledge of Russia’s Middle East policy. “That lets them manipulate you.”