Tories may skip a generation when picking a leader

It’s March 2019 and we’ve left the EU. Let’s assume that despite everything, Theresa May is still Prime Minister and Jeremy Corbyn Labour leader, ahead in the polls. What then? What kind of leader would the Tory party look to?

It’s safe to say that both MPs and party members may turn to a new generation. The likes of Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond could be seen as figures from the past. Given how Corbyn has “connected” with young voters, Tory MPs may think risks need to be taken.

The 2010 intake of Conservative MPs has been described as the “golden intake”, with comparisons made to the 1979 crop that featured Chris Patten, John Major, William Waldegrave and John Patten.

Several of the 2010 intake have already made it into the Cabinet – Amber Rudd, Andrea Leadsom, Sajid Javid, Priti Patel, Karen Bradley, Liz Truss, Brandon Lewis and Jeremy Wright. Conservative MPs will ask themselves: Are any of these election winners? The leading candidate ought to be Ms Rudd, the Home Secretary. She has the balls to take on all-comers, but her majority of only 346 in her Hastings & Rye constituency is probably enough to rule her out.

As Leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom has the chance to increase her media profile as “minister for the Today programme”. But question marks remain over her suitability.

Priti Patel is more of a political street fighter and looks the part, but does she have the depth? If Sajid Javid had stuck to his Eurosceptic convictions, I have little doubt he would now be the standout candidate. He still could be. If he plays his cards right, he’s certainly one to watch.

There are also some impressive 2010 intake ministers, such as Nick Hurd, Dominic Raab, Jo Johnson and Claire Perry. But as there isn’t likely to be a major Cabinet reshuffle, they won’t have many chances to shine.

Outside the government, Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan both have their admirers, but it’s difficult to see either commanding widespread support given their troublesome, often rebellious behaviour. Then there’s Esther McVey, back as MP for Tatton. If one criterion is whether you can imagine her in a TV debate with Mr Corbyn, she certainly passes.

Perhaps the party will skip a generation and look to the 2015 intake. Names mentioned include James Cleverly, Rishi Sunak and Ranil Jayawardena.

In the end, none of the names I have mentioned inspires total confidence in their ability to beat Mr Corbyn, an indictment in itself.

But one candidate appeals to the youth vote just as much – if not more than – Corbyn. Step forward Ruth Elizabeth Davidson.

Ignore the fact that she’s not an MP. She’s one of the few genuine stars in the Tory firmament. Yes, she has a tendency to shout her mouth off in a style Edwina Currie would be proud of. Yes, she’s said to be somewhat highly strung. But in the end, she’s a winner. And that’s what the Conservative Party is desperately searching for.

Ruth Davidson, your party needs you – in London, not Edinburgh. Iain Dale is a leading blogger and former Conservative candidate. He presents the weekday drive-time show on LBC