Democrats are not the only party with candidates thinking about 2020 election
Having just finished one presidential election, Washington cannot wait to get the next one under way. This is due, in part, to necessity: presidential campaigns are behemoth organisational feats that require years to plan. Everything from big money donors to precinct captains in Nevada have to be lined up ahead of time.
Even the most desultory presidential candidate in recent memory, Donald Trump, meticulously planned his run for years. He nearly ran in 2000, and applied to trademark the phrase “Make America Great Again” six days after the 2012 election. However much this past year in American politics might have felt like a colossal cosmic joke, know that we did not get here by accident.
So what’s next? A bevy of Democratic candidates are lining up, some more publicly than others. Pilgrimages to Iowa have begun, the best indication of early interest. This Midwestern state holds the first primary for both parties, and is therefore the first opportunity to separate the wheat from the chaff. Iowa is also in the middle of nowhere; one does not just “stop by”. A politician making a quick trip to Des Moines or Cedar Rapids is always a marker of presidential ambition.
This will be the first wide-open Democratic primary in 16 years (remember that for everyone but a junior senator from Illinois, 2008 “belonged” to Hillary), and decades of ambition are bursting at the seams of the party. There are heaps of governors, masses of senators, stacks of congresspeople, a few mayors, former cabinet secretaries, and even a vice president (Joe Biden) chomping at the bit. So, knowing their party will not be lacking for talent, Democrats have a soul-searching three years ahead: what sort of standard-bearer do they want for their party?
Hillary Clinton’s mantle could be taken up by senators Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand. Warren or Bernie Sanders could credibly lead a populist charge against corporate America and its perceived greed. Governor Andrew Cuomo or Vice President Biden could speak to a populism more akin to Trump’s: that of the blue collar worker who feels left behind.
Among the governors, Deval Patrick (Massachusetts) is seen as the natural inheritor to Barack Obama’s legacy, while Jerry Brown (California) has serious environmental chops. Steve Bullock (Montana), Terry McAuliffe (Virginia), and John Hickenlooper (Colorado) have all developed national reputations on single issues – Bullock for his opposition to corporate campaign finance, McAuliffe for the restoration of voting rights to felons, and Hickenlooper for the legalisation of marijuana. They could also go the celebrity route; Mark Zuckerberg is snapping up former Clinton advisers.
Across the aisle, there is less chatter, but much furious paddling beneath the surface. Trump has already held a 2020 fundraiser to signal that he’s not going anywhere. Traditionally, incumbent presidents are not challenged by their own party. But Trump is not a traditional anything,
at telegraph.co.uk/ opinion and his nasty habit of attacking other Republicans has engendered little loyalty within the party. The president remains popular with the base, but if his numbers begin to slide, expect an onslaught of new Republican candidates. Trump is a sufficiently polarising figure that the 2020 GOP primary will probably ignore the party’s ordinary ideological divisions and boil down to a stark choice between Trump and anybody with a shot of bringing him down.
No one has declared an intent to run, but senators Ben Sasse and Jeff Flake both have a track record of criticising the president, and both have released books this year, another telltale sign that a campaign is being considered. Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins both sent a shot across the bow with their recent “no” votes on the ObamaCare repeal bill.
Governor John Kasich of Ohio, Senator Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, have all withstood the rigours of a presidential campaign before and may well try again. Whatever happens, though, this level of speculation about candidates (including serious primary challenges) is bad news for the president. Washington operates on two, four and six year cycles, and influence is largely conditional on whether one is expected to survive the next election.
Trump now faces a vicious circle: his inability to deliver his legislative agenda has led to speculation about who’s going to replace him, which in turn makes it more difficult for him to deliver his legislative agenda.
Presidents typically have the period between inauguration and the midterms ( just under two years) to build the case for their re-election. This one may well have less.
The billionaire yacht owners of the Côte d’Azur are voting with their feet. Facing sharply higher taxes on crews and fuel, they’re fleeing their haunts in St Tropez and Antibes for Barcelona and Portofino. By refuelling a 42m yacht in Italy instead of France, the owner could save €21,000 (£19,000) a week in tax. Now revenues at St Tropez’s marina have sunk by 30 per cent.
So far, so familiar. The super-rich have always been mobile, and those in possession of gin palaces of dubious taste more mobile than most. Who can blame them? When overweening politicians think they can squeeze whatever they like out of whoever they please, it is a natural expression of personal liberty to head for a jurisdiction less antagonistic towards wealth creation and aspiration.
But Jeremy Corbyn – whose claim to have a “costed” manifesto was based considerably on defining anyone earning more than £80,000 as rich – is labouring under a delusion if he thinks that sensitivity to excessive taxation is exclusive to the plutocrats. There is every possibility that Britain will face its own St Tropez-style exodus if he comes to power – and it won’t just be a few yachts, but a middle-class armada.
Moving abroad isn’t the sole preserve of the rootless and the retired. An OECD report in 2008 found that 3.2 million British-born people were living overseas, 1.1 million of them highly skilled graduates. No
Whatever happens, this level of speculation about candidates is bad news for the president
Corbyn is labouring under a delusion if he thinks that sensitivity to excessive taxation is exclusive to the plutocrats
at telegraph.co.uk/ opinion