Soft-touch basic Brexit a pure fantasy, says EU
THE British Government is living in “fantasy land” if it believes that it can achieve an amicable break-up with the EU in the event of a “basic” Brexit, senior EU officials and diplomats have told The Sunday Telegraph.
Three separate EU sources in both Brussels and a leading EU capital have warned that British expectations of a “no-deal deal” had failed to take into account the ramifications of the UK leaving Europe without paying its bills.
The tough European line raises serious questions about the value of assurances given by David Davis to the Lords this week that Europe would do a “basic” deal with Britain in the event that both sides were unable to negotiate a trade deal.
The Brexit Secretary told the Lords EU select committee that in the “very, very improbable” event that a deal proved impossible beyond the two sides, worst-case scenarios would be averted. “Whatever happens we will have a basic deal without the bits we really want,” he said.
However, European officials are adamant that if the UK exits the EU without a deal – leaving an immediate €20billion (£18billion) black hole in the EU’s seven-year budget framework – there will be no appetite to engineer a soft landing for the UK. “This is pure fantasy,” said a senior EU diplomat closely involved in the Brexit negotiations, “the idea of a ‘no-deal deal’ completely fails to understand the EU, or the fury that would result if the British leave without paying their bills.
“At that point, the EU wouldn’t be looking to make a parachute for the UK, it will only be working out how to cut strings.”
A second Brussels-based source was equally clear. “If things go really sour the 27 will be in no mood to try to collate a number of last-minute mini-emergency deals for ‘free’. We’ll be busy enough trying to sort out the budget fallout.”
The emphasis on the EU’s annual budget – to which the UK contributes €10billion a year – begs the question of whether Theresa May would be prepared to pay for the “basic” Brexit deal envisaged by her Brexit Secretary.
Mrs May has so far pledged that the UK will pay its dues in 2019 and 2020 in order to secure a transition and future trade deal, but Whitehall sources indicated it was far from certain that the UK would pay that amount to secure a “basic” Brexit that included no trade deal at all.
It is equally uncertain that the EU, which is demanding €60billion to settle what it says are Britain’s past liabilities from EU membership, would accept €20billion for a “basic” Brexit.
The EU’s current budget cycle runs up until 2020, leaving two unpaid years by the UK in the event of a “crash out” Brexit, making €20billion the key number that would keep the remaining EU member states from having to re-open the budget.