No-deal is bad for EU and it must be told so

This is the week when we finally discover what the consequences will be in the event of the Brexit talks failing: the Government’s no-deal papers are published on Thursday. Project Fear is largely responsible for any public panic, but the Tories have made things worse. By threatening that the only options are Chequers or no-deal (which is untrue), they have cast no-deal as a cliff-edge rather than a challenge we can handle. And the Government’s rhetoric of doom hasn’t even been clear in its target: is it Britain that should fear more, or Europe?

It would be very rough for both sides, which is why no-deal ought to be avoided as far as possible. But no-deal is also, as Janet Daley writes opposite, a reality. If Britain doesn’t get what it wants – if it is told it must adhere to EU laws, open borders, restrictions on trade and diminished sovereignty – then it must walk away. That warning was laid out in the Tory manifesto in black-and-white.

The only mystery is why the Government has waited so long to prepare properly and openly for a no-deal outcome. It should have said since 2016 that, first, the phrase no-deal is a misnomer. It should have promised that there will in fact be agreements in place on such necessities as medicines and air-travel, or that there will be the technology ready to deal with customs and goods movement. Second, it should have emphasised that whatever short-term hit the UK takes to its economy, in the long-run it may well be sclerotic old Europe that suffers the greater damage, while the UK reorientates towards global trade. And if there is no-deal, we are under no obligation to pay £39 billion as a divorce bill. Brussels will wave goodbye to our cash.

Britain isn’t the only one accused of playing with fire: Tobias Ellwood warns in these pages that Brussels could even turn defence into a bargaining chip, which may make some readers wonder why Britain hasn’t been doing the same. Defence is one area where the EU clearly needs us more than we need them. The Government’s no-deal rhetoric should ram this point home on all fronts: Brussels would be unbelievably stupid to drive away a partner as rich and influential as the UK.