Will Queen Anne reign supreme at the Baftas?
In a year when the Oscars has been mired in controversy (original host Kevin Hart stepping down in the light of homophobic remarks, eight nominations for Bohemian Rhapsody whose director, Bryan Singer, is facing renewed allegations of statutory rape), Bafta has quietly gone about its business in the build up to tonight’s awards ceremony.
Now, all it has to do is make the right choices vis-à-vis the actual gongs and, come the end of the month, the British Academy’s awards night could look, for once, like a credible alternative to the Oscars, rather than the pushy gatecrasher at the derby.
Film
Will win: The Favourite Should win: The Favourite Could win: Roma
Bafta’s British bias isn’t always a clinching factor in who gets gold, but the brilliantly risqué Queen Anne biopic The Favourite, starring Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone, is mathematically way out in front, with 12 nominations in total. Bohemian Rhapsody, despite coming joint second with seven, has been relegated to the Best British Film category, which it frankly needs to lose (sorry, Queen fans) if Bafta dignity is to be fully maintained. Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born is by this stage a fading threat, leaving Mexican director Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma – heavily favoured for the Best Picture Oscar – as the most likely spoiler.
Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón ( Roma) Should win: Yorgos Lanthimos ( The Favourite) Could win: Paweł Pawlikowski ( Cold War)
Spike Lee (for BlackKklansman) and Bradley Cooper (for A Star is Born) are the American outsiders who will be doing a lot of sitting and clapping throughout the night. The closest thing to a British choice would be Pawlikowski, who has worked here for most of his career, but voters may feel the nomination is enough. Beyond the film’s script and performances, Lanthimos’s distinctively off-kilter direction is what gives The Favourite its wicked bite, but Cuarón has the edge here for Roma’s personal vision and pristine command of style.
Actress
Will win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite) Should win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Could win: Glenn Close (The Wife) Close, a six-time Oscar loser already, is the bookies’ favourite to break that spell on Feb 24, securing herself a career-achievement prize for hypnotic work in a film generally considered fairly minor. Almost no one, though, is more popular with Bafta types than Olivia Colman. She’s won three of these now for TV performances. What could be a neck-and-neck race on both occasions looks more likely to tip Colman’s way tonight, and few will complain: she’s magnificent.
Actor
Will win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) Should win: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Could win: Christian Bale (Vice) Here’s the night’s big worry, at least if you subscribe to the view that Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury is a skindeep, unprofound, karaoke stunt turn bafflingly lauded even by people who didn’t like the surrounding film. Adoration of Mercury, not Malek, may drive votes, while the film’s huge box office and British production history increases one’s (well, my) anxiety. True, Bale hasn’t won a Bafta before, and carries the Dick Cheney biopic Vice with considerably more aplomb. If only Cheney had a fan base, or people noticed that Cooper’s giving the performance of his life.
Supporting Actress
Will win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) Should win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) Could win: Claire Foy (First Man)
Missing from the nominees here is the Oscar favourite, Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. The beneficiary is surely Weisz, a constant nominee all season for The Favourite who can take this home as a major consolation prize: her Lady Sarah is a brilliantly angry creation with cunning, guts and depth. Amy Adams could thereby lose a seventh Bafta – sympathy votes may, in fact, accrue for this – but her Lynne Cheney isn’t quite as forceful in Vice as Foy’s Janet Armstrong was in First Man, the least supportive “supportive wife” in memory.
Supporting Actor
(Can Will win: You Ever Richard Forgive E Grant Me?) Should win: Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) Could Mahershala win: Ali (Green Book)
It depends whether there’s any residual guilt over not giving Ali his Moonlight due two years ago, when he lost to Dev Patel. He’s well in the running, then, but it feels like Grant could be an irresistible option, in a comeback role that’s so very him, and has triggered the first awards attention of his entire career. Add his infectious excitement on social media at getting all these nominations, and this feels like a recipe for a feelgood upset if ever we spotted one.