As dawn breaks on November 1, what will the UK face on its first day outside the EU?

The Prime Minister has brought fresh leadership and a sense of energy and momentum. He needs to harness this to prepare the UK for all eventualities

It is 6am, November 1 2019, and today is the day. Everyone is in the office early, prepped and ready to deal with all manner of contingencies. Some colleagues never went home. Last night’s statement from Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, has been replaying across the global newscasts all night.

Tick-tock: it’s the countdown to the all-important market opening at 8am and everyone is quiet with anticipation – even the doomsters, exhausted from weeks of shouting and fearmongering.

Does this scenario sound familiar? November 1 has been synonymous with doomsday of late; the threat of a no-deal Brexit debated in increasingly panicked tones. But hold the clock – we’re not quite there yet.

The new Prime Minister has brought fresh leadership and a sense of energy and momentum – he needs to harness this over the next three months to prepare the UK for all eventualities. Much of that involves promoting our links abroad and making sure that “Global Britain” is a Government imperative. But to further boost growth we’ll need to be flexible and agile at home, too.

The age-old debate about progressive taxation versus lower rates has continued to rage on, and in recent months countries including the US, Portugal, Italy and Australia have been exploring using their tax systems to achieve a bigger taxation

pool, rather than levying higher rates within a smaller pool. No matter which side of the debate you are on, the one undeniable fact is that the only way to generate significantly more cash to splash on public services is to have a bigger economic base from which to collect the taxes. The only way to collect more is, in the end, by growing our economy.

We need to encourage significant additional investment to create a steady and more dispersed supply of new jobs, ultimately delivering more revenue for the state coffers. We also need to stabilise our tax system and quit the habit of constantly tweaking, which has resulted in an overly lengthy and complex taxation code.

The UK needs to look at its overall regulatory framework, learn from past mistakes and reconstruct to best suit today’s society and economy.

To help individuals, over the next three months ministers could consider cutting VAT and zero-rating more essential everyday items; cutting income tax by up to 5p in the pound across all income thresholds and increasing the personal allowance to £20,000; significantly reducing stamp duty land tax and removing stamp duty altogether for sharebased transactions; and introducing new legislation to make it easier for corporates to incentivise staff through equity ownership schemes.

For business, the Government ought to think about slashing corporation tax with immediate effect, introducing additional tax incentives for companies to invest in key growth industries, and offering long-term tax holidays for companies moving activities to the UK from abroad.

The doomsters will no doubt cry about tax cuts for the rich. But these measures, when combined, would create the right environment to massively boost investment, building a larger and more dynamic economy.

Which brings us back to November 1. It’s 6.30am now, and overnight the pound was volatile in foreign markets, but stabilised as the Government made a series of late-night announcements. Taxes are to be slashed, regulations to deal with borders and customs have been swiftly promulgated, and all the City regulators have responded by issuing short-term policy guidance notes. The FTSE-100 future index, heavily weighted by foreign earnings, is actually slightly up. The scheduled live address by Mr Johnson will commence at 7am.

As he begins, everyone on the trading floor goes silent – an unusual state of affairs. He finishes, after 20 minutes of repeating the previous night’s announcements, with: “Folks, we are out of the EU, the sun has risen this morning and shines brightly on us. Keep calm and carry on.”

Mark Carney, the recently departed Governor of the Bank of England, who is now running the IMF from Paris, and Christine Lagarde, are next up live, all issuing statements telling everyone how prepared the ECB and IMF are for any fallout from Brexit.

Finally, the markets open after what feels like an eternity. Activity is intense, but the pound opens at the same price as predicted by the overseas markets and the FTSE indices stabilise within hours of opening.

After a long three years, Brexit day draws to a close – and the markets are stable.