Remainers must tell the EU to renegotiate

Boris Johnson was elected by Tory members with a clear mandate: get out of the EU by Oct 31 with or without a deal. The only people who can stop him are Remainer MPs – and Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave guru now working for the PM, says that even the wreckers have run out of time. Mature and conscientious Remainers must change tactics. If they don’t want Britain to crash out without a deal – a scenario best avoided – then they need to tell the Brussels Eurocrats to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement. Because a no-deal Brexit is coming. Britain is getting ready for it.

It’s almost hard to believe that Theresa May wasted three years failing to prepare for no deal, but Mr Johnson seems to be taking it deadly seriously, with plans for more border officers, freeports, and help for business. Last week, an additional £2.1billion was put into planning, double what was previously intended. Of course, it’s entirely possible that all of this is a show to spook the Europeans into stripping the backstop out of the agreement. Mr Johnson has insisted that the chances of leaving the EU without a deal are in fact “a million to one”. But even if the probability of it occurring is low, if it does happen then Mr Cummings predicts that the chances of MPs being able to prevent Britain from leaving without a deal are equally slim.

To date, the Europeans have not taken no deal seriously because they assume Parliament will find a way of stopping it, and it’s true that a cross-party alliance of Remainers and an out-of-control Speaker have frustrated proceedings. But now the UK has a PM determined to leave and just three months to go before the country exits by legal default. The Remainers’ best hope of beating the default has always been to hold a vote of no confidence, bringing down the Government. But even if Jeremy Corbyn pulled that off, Mr Cummings says that the government can just delay a general election until after October 31 – by which time, Britain would be out of the EU. The Brexit Party would presumably then collapse and the Tories would win with the overwhelming support of Leave voters. It’s an election the Government denies it wants, but spending plans – such as announcing a £1.8billion cash boost for the NHS – suggest it is getting ready for it.

Again, this might all be a giant bluff – but at this stage, in such a short timetable, there’s no material difference between bluffing no deal and getting ready for it. Preparation forces the hand of two key groups. First, the Europeans need to realise that they have lost their power in negotiations if Britain is intent on walking away. They must remove the backstop, as Mr Johnson demands, and rethink the humiliating terms of the withdrawal deal, which threatens to trap us in the regulatory, economic and political orbit of Brussels for good, relegating us to a rule-taking vassal state. Brussels must see that this new Government won’t play along. If they can’t grasp this sea-change in policy, their allies in Britain have to explain it to them. Perhaps it is time for Tony Blair to take another trip to the Continent?

Second, Conservative MPs need to understand that the path Mr Johnson has put them on is the one most likely to achieve a Brexit with some sort of deal. If they fight it, they are – ironically – more likely to trigger a no-deal outcome. If, however, Mr Cummings is wrong and, by some parliamentary skulduggery, they do stop Mr Johnson, then they will disillusion Leave voters, destroy the Tories at the polls and help elect a Remain coalition that would probably put Mr Corbyn in No 10.

In other words, Mr Johnson’s gamble is a far safer bet than anything Remain can come up with.

Europeans need to realise they have lost their negotiating power if the UK is intent on walking away