Jon Moynihan:

The Prime Minister faces one of the most complicated political puzzles of modern times, to negotiate simultaneously with four parties: the EU, the Remainer Parliament, the Tory ERG, and the electorate. In 67 days. To please the EU he dangles something close to the deal his predecessor failed to pass in Parliament. To placate Parliament he has hinted at (potentially politically suicidal) concessions to a true Brexit. To propitiate the ERG, he has said May’s deal is dead. To appeal to swing voters, he shows himself going to great lengths with the EU; yet to

appeal to his natural voter, the Brexiteer, he must avoid any suggestion he’s becoming May Redux.

Winning all four over simultaneously is not easy, perhaps impossible. How is he doing? In the Tory leadership hustings, Boris was unrelenting in his view that May’s deal was dead. That worked, but enraged Parliament.

In his EU charm offensive, he has managed to appear accommodating, but any implied willingness to go with “May’s deal less the backstop” would likely be electorally fatal. Even if Nigel Farage disbanded the Brexit Party, enough Brexiteers would withhold their vote from the Tories to destroy them. May’s deal contained an outrage on almost every page. No unilateral ability to exit. The £39 billion. The ECJ in charge. The EU interpreting the deal’s wording as it chose. The UK to accept any law passed by the EU.

The Spartans in the ERG’s hackles raise if Boris implies that getting rid of the backstop might suffice. They subside when he states we must be out of the Customs Union and Single Market “when we leave” (Oct 31) – meaning the Withdrawal Agreement has to be ripped up. But then they hear talk about the “transition period” – which would prevent Liz Truss from signing proper trade deals, in particular with the US, until 2021 or later, when Donald Trump might not even be in power.

A muddle, but not of Boris’s making. It comes from the Government’s catastrophic behaviour over the past three years. Can Boris continue his charm offensive, inducing the EU to avoid its self-harming stance of driving the UK into the arms of the US? Will he duck or defeat a Sept 9 confidence vote?

If he does, we are fair set for a clean Brexit. If, however, he goes down the “May’s deal minus backstop” route, can he persuade the ERG to go against everything they have fought for? And even if that carries, would not he risk electoral annihilation?

There is a way out of all this: the GATT XXIV route of a draft free trade agreement, allowing for a standstill with “no tariffs” from Nov 1 while a UK-EU tariff schedule is worked out. That is the relationship that was voted for in June 2016; the same relationship Canada, say, seeks with the EU: a trade deal, beneficial to both sides.

If Boris can get past Sept 9, it may be the EU will agree to this proposal; and, as the strong showing of the Tories in the polls indicates, a clean Brexit will be rewarded at the (likely imminent) general election. This in turn will allow the Government to do all the things Brexit makes possible, transforming our economy and country.

‘Can Boris continue his charm offensive, inducing the EU to avoid its self-harming stance of driving the UK into the arms of the US? ‘