Hand of Putin behind Guinea’s brutal crackdown on protesters
WHEN police in Guinea shot nine prodemocracy protesters dead this week, Western embassies quietly shared their misgivings with the country’s president, Alpha Conde.
International human rights groups were more unequivocal, with François Patuel, of Amnesty International, calling it “a shameful attempt by Guinean authorities to stifle dissent by any means necessary”.
But one major power seemed unperturbed. Mr Conde’s ruthless response to protests not only suited Russia, it seems probable that it was tacitly endorsed by the Kremlin.
On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will host leaders from 35 African states at a summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi as he seeks to consolidate Moscow’s growing influence in the world’s poorest continent.
Russia may lack the heft of its rivals, unable to match the West in aid or China in infrastructure financing, but it has other resources with which to woo African leaders, particularly those of a more authoritarian bent.
Not only has Russia sold arms to 18 African states over the past decade, its mercenaries have fanned out across the continent to offer their services.
“Political technologists” have also been accused of mounting disinformation campaigns in several recent African elections.
In return, Russia has won concessions to mine minerals and secured backing from African delegates at the United Nations. Its blossoming relationship with Mr Conde is an example of just how successful its muscular Africa policy can be.
Guineans are meant to elect a new president next year. Having served two five-year terms, Mr Conde is constitutionally barred from standing again, but has made it increasingly clear he is not ready to surrender the presidency.
For him to stay on, Guinea will need an entirely new constitution, plans for which have already been advanced by his ruling party.
The opposition has accused the president of stacking the constitutional court, taming the electoral commission and delaying parliamentary elections by more than a year to protect his narrow legislative majority.
And Russia has openly given its cover to Mr Conde’s efforts. In an intervention brazen even by Kremlin standards, Russia’s then ambassador made a televised address on New Year’s Eve backing the constitutional change.
Alexander Bregadze told Guineans they would be mad to allow “legendary” Mr Conde to step down, saying: “Do you know many countries in Africa that do better? Do you know many presidents in Africa who do better? It’s constitutions that adapt to reality, not reality that adapts to constitutions.”
Such naked campaigning from a diplomat is unusual. But Russia has a vital relationship to nurture.
Guinea holds the world’s largest reserves of bauxite, the ore refined and smelted to produce aluminium. The Russian firm Rusal sources more than a quarter of its bauxite from Guinea.
Guinea’s importance to Russia grew immeasurably after the US imposed sanctions on Rusal and its co-owner, the oligarch and Putin ally Oleg Deripaska. Sanctions have since been lifted on Rusal but not on Mr Deripaska.
The significance of the relationship was underscored when Mr Bregadze stepped down as ambassador in May to head Rusal’s operations in Guinea.
Tellingly, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Kremlin associate linked to mercenary and mining outfits in Africa, is understood to have set up operations in Guinea.
Guinea’s opposition has denounced what it says is Russian interference, and protesters last week made their feelings clear by blockading a Rusalowned railway line.
But emboldened by Russian backing, Mr Conde has only cracked down harder. Last week, nine senior opposition figures were charged with insurrection. They face five years in prison.
Given everything it has invested in Mr Conde, Russia cannot risk the opposition coming to power.
When Mr Putin meets his guest in Sochi, he is likely to encourage him to persist with repression.
‘Given everything it has invested in Mr Conde, Russia cannot risk the opposition coming to power’