Labour must regain ground lost over two decades, not just in last two years

This was simply a shattering election defeat for Labour. We’ve lost 59 seats since 2017, with some historic Labour constituencies now represented by Conservative MPs for the first time ever.

The election was called on Brexit and largely decided on Brexit. We went backwards in a big way, with Labour losses heavily concentrated in Brexit-voting areas: 16 of our 17 most marginal Leave seats – from Wakefield to Stoke-on-Trent – were taken by the Tories and supposedly safe seats, like Leigh and Blyth Valley, went too.

While the obvious problem for Labour is winning back the estimated million Labour leavers who voted

Conservative or Brexit Party last week, that’s only the start of our road to recovery. As Labour sets its sight on the rebuilding task, the real test is regaining the ground lost in the last two decades not the last two years and our benchmark must be when we last won Government.

The hard truth is there’s a swathe of working class and average income voters who have been moving away from Labour for the last four or five elections. In work that I’ve done in the past, I’ve taken a close look at the English new towns in the South and the Midlands to try to capture this electoral challenge.

These towns comprise 16 constituencies like Stevenage, Telford and Milton Keynes and provide a wider lens on the dislocation of aspirational working people from Labour. In our 1997 victory, Labour won all but one of these 16 seats.

By May 2010, we held just one and, after last Thursday when we lost

Peterborough, we represent none at all.

So the question Labour’s leadership contenders should be asked is not just how we win back former working class strongholds like Rother Valley and Ashfield but how we take back towns like Harlow, Crawley and Northampton, which we haven’t won since 2005.

Our mission must be Britain’s real middle. Not the mythical middle class that some in the New Labour years wrongly thought meant those earning £40-50,000 a year, nor simply the poorest for whom Labour will always care deeply but who in recent years we’ve given the impression are our sole concern. The average annual full-time wage is just £25,000 and it is the 10 million people on ordinary incomes either side of this average that should be Labour’s core constituency and central political concern.

These workers are the backbone of our economy and heart of our public services who are being failed by both the state and the market. They’re too wealthy for welfare support and too stretched to have any real choice or opportunity over jobs and housing.

How can Labour reorient itself to win back Britain’s real middle? Less than a fortnight after our election defeat, no one has all the answers but there is a way back for Labour.

First, the Tories are flying high but there’s plenty that can go wrong for them.

Their coalition of voters is fundamentally unstable when an old Etonian seeks to speak for former coalfield communities, and there are no convincing Conservative answers to the day-to-day problems many face in this week’s limp Queen’s Speech.

Second, Labour mustn’t lose sight of the imperative of good opposition.

After our 2010 defeat I remember how we descended into internal electioneering and by the time we emerged, so much of the narrative had been set and the damage done for the 2010-15 parliament. But to carry this off our arguments and alternatives we must be credible, not just radical, and at this election we failed to maintain the fiscal and policy discipline we largely established in 2017.

Third, we can’t neglect place and patriotism. When the world feels more fragmented and fast-moving our sense of belonging, our town and our country are all the more important. The most successful movements of the Left have shown pride in the national flag. This needn’t be rooted in nostalgia, and concern for our citizens can be a progressive inclusive sentiment: a national social contract for all that only Labour can honour.

Fourth, the London Labour bubble is real and so is the risk of losing voices from beyond the soundproof seats in our big cities. There’s no easy fix, but appointing regional posts in Labour’s shadow cabinet would help ensure a leadership with a sharper sense of the politics away from Westminster.

Finally, it’s undeniable that Brexit dominated this election. In a Brexit referendum and a Brexit election the public have now been clear, and so must we: our fight must be about the type of Brexit and the difference between Labour and Conservative visions for our economy. Any question about whether Brexit goes ahead has been closed. This would help us set aside the saga of the past few years and give Labour a chance of rebuilding to win the next election.

‘Less than a fortnight after our election defeat, no one has all the answers but there is a way back for Labour’