Virus will decide if escapist America can face reality
The United States could see an explosion of technological innovation to minimise Covid-19
Escapism was how America responded to the virus. For the best part of two months, as the epidemic raged in China and then Italy, President Donald Trump kept insisting that the disease was no worse than the seasonal flu. Like Napoleon and the yellow fever outbreak in Haiti, he seems to have taken the virus as a personal insult. If only he could wish it away, reelection would be assured.
But Trump was far from alone. Progressive outlets such as The New York Times and Vox went out of their way to mock those concerned with the looming threat. As late as Friday, The Wall Street Journal was still pleading in an editorial that the best strategy was to continue more or less as before, to avoid economic collapse.
The country looks unprepared. Testing is still not readily available and medical supplies are scarce. Recent reports found hospitals setting up sewing stations to make masks and gowns out of sterile wrap. Public authorities seem incapable of performing the basic functions of government. A society accustomed to thinking itself the most technologically advanced in the world has been overcome by natural forces.
In my new book, I argue that America is best understood as a civilisation built on escapism, so recent events have not surprised me. The most important question is what happens next. Will Americans be brought back to reality by the seriousness of the current threat? Or will they use it as an opportunity to leave reality behind, once and for all?
In one scenario, America becomes more like the rest of the planet. This crisis could prick the bubble of partisan discourse and help the country come together to create a universal healthcare system and deal with pressing social issues such as gun control or homelessness. The problem with this thesis, however, is that the virus has moved the goalposts for social progress. Before the pandemic, progressives such as Bernie Sanders wanted the US to adopt some of the policies prevalent in Western Europe. Now they are contemplating an authoritarian Chinese model.
Two main responses are likely to develop. Authorities might attempt to eliminate the threat posed by the novel virus and future viral outbreaks. Effective vaccines and treatments are being researched and tested. Further infections will be limited through social distancing, recurrent lockdowns and quarantines. When the worst is over, widespread digital surveillance might well become necessary. It is already happening in South Korea.
As for the economic consequences, it may soon become the norm that governments will have to take over large chunks of the economy, provide a universal basic income and direct industrial production to indispensable goods and supplies. I believe many parts of the world will go down this route. It might bring the European and Asian political cultures closer, though it seems implausible that Americans could ever adopt such a solution.
The second general strategy regards the attempt to change social and economic reality as essentially futile. Instead, the way forward is an escape from a physical world populated by dangerous viruses and in the throes of climate change. Trump might end up being vindicated in his approach, with the crucial difference that this alternative reality will be a product of technological innovation rather than wishful thinking.
The coronavirus provides a strong incentive to create autonomous vehicles and delivery robots that minimise the spread of disease. The same applies to telecommuting and telemedicine, collective virtual platforms for sharing cultural and entertainment experiences, and to online education. As the tech entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan put it: remote work, remote education, remote everything. Evacuate to digital life, which no virus can reach.
Elsewhere, virtual worlds might be embedded in physical space: safe areas barring entry to those unable to provide proof of immunity, some kind of digital verification showing one has recovered from or been vaccinated against the latest virus strains. Many of these technologies will increase inequality, but they also promise thrilling possibilities for human advancement.
The next few years are likely to be a period of explosive technological innovation. The ideas were always there. What was lacking was a large enough shock to show the weakness of existing structures and break regulatory and other obstacles. The United States seems uniquely predisposed to embrace the challenge.