Scientists work on test to show who will suffer most from virus

CAMBRIDGE University scientists are developing a test to predict who is most likely to suffer severe symptoms if they catch Covid-19.

It is hoped an analysis of people’s “molecular fingerprint” – the combinations of chemicals in a person’s body – will reveal a biochemical pattern that predicts who is most at risk and who is likely to barely notice if they catch coronavirus. The research, which is being conducted in partnership with a specialist laboratory in Australia, could solve the frustration felt by those who are told to stay at home because they are over 70 and classified as being vulnerable, despite being fit and healthy.

If successful the project would mean those who turn out to be relatively resistant to Covid-19 but might otherwise have regarded themselves as at high risk could feel more confident about venturing out or returning to work. Dr Chris Smith, a virologist who is leading the UK side of the research, said establishing “biomarkers” through blood and urine could create a simple, fast and cheap system to identify those at most and least risk.

While it would not technically provide an “immunity passport”, it could help people make informed choices about how they behaved until a vaccine could be found.

Samples from British patients stored at Cambridge will be sent to the Australian National Phenome Centre in Perth where they will be analysed for their biochemical characteristics to establish why people react so differently to the disease. Dr Smith said: “We know that only a small fraction of people who get this virus are going to have a problem with it. What we don’t know is who those people are until they have already caught it, but by then it may be too late. So, is there a molecular fingerprint in a person that will tell us who is at risk and who isn’t?

“If you take a blood or urine sample, at the phenome centre we can look at the thousands of different molecules that are in the average person. We can analyse the different molecules present – for instance, the level of salt, potassium, chlorine – to get a unique chemical fingerprint. If we take people who have had coronavirus and recovered without any trouble and compare their chemical fingerprints with those who have caught coronavirus and nearly died or did die, we are hoping to find a molecular fingerprint of one over the other.”

Dr Smith is hoping to enlist the support of the Royal Australian Air Force to fly UK samples from Cambridge to the specialist lab in Perth.