Sunny weather keeps European second wave at bay

High temperatures a factor in protecting countries from renewed surge in Covid-19 cases, experts say

HIGH temperatures and good weather have so far protected countries from a second wave of coronavirus that would lead to thousands of deaths, it is thought.

With mounting evidence that the virus does not spread so effectively between people outdoors as inside crowded buildings, scientists are now pointing to recent weather as helping flatten the curve of the pandemic.

But fears remain that a second deadly wave could hit after the summer, as temperatures fall and seasonal infectious diseases, such as flu, take off again.

Europe in particular has for now avoided a renewed surge in Covid-19, despite having started to lift previously tough restrictions on work, schools and social interaction.

Several countries ahead of the UK on the road out of lockdown have seen local spikes, but have maintained an overall downward trend in new daily cases.

Experts say this is partly due to the weather, with the continent recording its hottest winter on record followed by a warm and sunny spring.

However, Prof Francois Balloux, chair in computational biology at University College London, who has examined the progress of the pandemic in Switzerland and Denmark, warned of a potential seasonal return of the virus.

Neither country has seen a rise in cases since lockdown measures began to ease, with schools and restaurants reopening in Switzerland on May 11.

Prof Balloux wrote: “Why did the epidemic not resume? Denmark has slowly and gradually relaxed its lockdown measures from 15 April on. There isn’t any evidence for an increase in the number of cases since either.” He said “other endemic coronaviruses causing ‘common colds’ are highly seasonal with a marked peak in winter” and concludes: “If SARSCoV2 transmission were similarly seasonal the Covid-19 epidemic may be slowed by the current summer weather.”

Prof Balloux said that what he called residual social distancing – the continued adherence by people to measures such as face masks and keeping apart from others – was not enough on its own to explain the lack of a second wave.

He concludes that “seasonality” combined with “residual social distancing” are both likely to have “contributed to the lack of resurgence of #COVID19 after the easing of lockdowns”.

Prof David Alexander, of the Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction at UCL, told The Telegraph the seasonality of coronavirus could be a key factor.

“There’s a consensus that a second wave is likely, perhaps in the autumn,” he said. “The reason we’ve not had a second wave yet in those countries that have eased restrictions may have something to do with the weather.”