Can Ireland find its way back from its second trauma in a decade?
As the coronavirus epidemic worsened across Europe, raucous celebrations among revellers in a Dublin pub in March forced the Irish government into one of the continent’s strictest lockdowns.
As the country emerges from the first wave of the crisis, the plight of the Irish pub has emerged as a key battleground between cautious policymakers and industry groups calling for much quicker loosening of economic restrictions.
Almost half of pubs may exploit a loophole in government rules by opening as a restaurant in June, according to a survey last week. Officially, watering holes can open their doors again in August, but those with restaurant certificates could open earlier – raising the prospect of drinkers having to book a table in advance and order their Guinness from a waiter.
Pubs and restaurants were not included in the government’s initial lockdown orders and were instead advised to adhere to strict social distancing measures. On March 15, though, images emerged on social media of a crowded pub in the Temple Bar, a popular Dublin city centre tourist hotspot, of young people huddled together singing along with a live band.
There was a widespread backlash among the public. The government immediately ordered the closure of all pubs and restaurants. On March 12, Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach, interrupted his annual St Patrick’s Day engagements in Washington to give a live address on Irish TV.
Also as part of lockdown measures, people were not allowed to travel more than 2km from where they lived. Movement was restricted to one daily exercise and a visit to the shop.
Ireland has one of the lowest rates of hospital beds per capita in the EU.
The government knew that if it didn’t stem the flow of the disease at an early stage, the healthcare system would be overwhelmed.
And the country has coped relatively well by international standards. There were 326,000 tests carried out in a population of just under 5million – one of the highest rates per capita in the world. The latest figures show 24,803 cases and 1,631 deaths recorded. However, the death rate is the eighth highest per capita in the world, but that is partly because the government included all Covidrelated mortalities in the official figures.
The crisis has been good for the government. Fine Gael, Mr Varadkar’s party, had a disastrous general election last February. It slumped to third place on 21 per cent of the popular vote.
The party is leading a caretaker government as negotiations to form a new administration have been complicated by the pandemic. The competent handling of the crisis has seen its popularity surge to 37 per cent in the latest opinion poll.
Mr Varadkar’s personal ratings have also soared, despite being accused of flouting lockdown rules with a park barbecue. A qualified doctor, he renewed his licence to practice in a clinic every Saturday.
But there has been one very large blot on its copybook. Figures published last week show that Ireland had the second highest rate of care home deaths in the world.
Now the focus has shifted to reopening the economy, and the scale of the damage caused by the pandemic was underlined by figures released by the Economic and Social Research Institute on Thursday. It estimates that
Ireland will experience its worst ever recession this year as the economy is forecast to shrink by 12 per cent.
Pub owners have said that, if the government doesn’t accelerate the timeline for reopening the economy, then the sector could be destroyed.
The Vintners’ Federation of Ireland (VFI), which represents publicans, wants the government to change course and allow pubs to open on June 29, when restaurants open their doors. Publicans also want the government to reduce the social distancing rule from two metres to one metre, which would reduce standing capacity by 87 per cent and seating capacity by 66 per cent.
The VFI has said that if the social distancing rule was reduced to one metre, in line with World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines, then standing capacity would only be reduced by 50 per cent and seating capacity by 35 per cent.
“From the perspective of commercial viability, the WHO guidelines obviously make much more sense for hospitality venues such as pubs,” Padraig Cribben, chief executive of the VFI, said.
Several cabinet ministers have called on Mr Varadkar to relax the rule.
Government formation talks are close to an agreement. It is expected that Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party could publish a programme for government next week and a new government be in place in June.
The social distancing rule and the pub sector is just one of many issues it will have to resolve as the Irish economy recovers from a devastating trauma for the second time in a decade.
‘Now the focus has shifted to reopening the economy, and the scale of the damage caused by the pandemic’