Egypt’s water supply at risk as tensions rise over dam

Ethiopia and Egypt at loggerheads over access to Nile supplies affected by £4bn hydroelectric project

THE plane from Egypt packed with a cache of weapons was meant to arrive in Somalia in May. But the 2,000 Kalashnikovs, rocket launchers, sniper rifles, pistols and mortars never left the ground.

They were stopped, a senior Somali official told The Sunday Telegraph, because of fears in Mogadishu of Somalia being publicly drawn into a growing row between two of Africa’s superpowers.

Egypt has been the dominant power on the Nile for thousands of years. But the balance of power is about to shift far upstream. In the next few weeks, when the rainy season arrives, Ethiopia will start to fill a vast reservoir with the waters of the Blue Nile, one of the great river’s two main tributaries.

One of Africa’s largest infrastructure projects will effectively give Ethiopia the power to turn off the taps in Egypt – and could force neighbouring countries to pick a side.

For nearly a decade, Ethiopia has been constructing a mile-long wall of cement almost twice the height of the Statue of Liberty. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, as it is known, straddles the Blue Nile, a few miles from the border with Sudan.

When the project is complete it will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, capable of holding 72billion cubic metres of water and doubling the country’s unstable energy supply.

For Ethiopia, the dam is a national wonder – a statement of a people treated cruelly for the past century emerging on to the world stage, a stepping stone towards industrialisation.

The £3.8billion needed for the project has been raised without international help through private donations and government bonds. Ethiopian civil servants have even been asked to pay part of their salary towards the construction.

But for Egypt, whose 100million people live almost entirely off water from the river, the dam poses an “existential threat” according to Egypt’s minister of foreign affairs Sameh Shoukry.

Officials say even a small reduction in the Nile’s waters could worsen already bad droughts and wreak havoc on Egypt’s rich agriculture sector and water supply.

Sudan also stands to benefit from the dam’s cheap electricity and flood control.

Talks between the three countries over how the dam should be filled and managed have failed to resolve these fundamental differences.

In February, US-backed talks ended with Ethiopia walking out at the crucial moment. Talks came close to reaching a deal, but broke down over legal issues of drought management and international treaties, which Ethiopia felt would damage its sovereignty.

Now Ethiopia is planning to fill it with or without an agreement, prompting analysts and diplomats to issue unprecedented warnings that a peaceful resolution must be found immediately.

Their concerns are well founded. In the past, Egyptian officials have made thinly veiled threats of military action, saying Egypt would use “all means available” to protect its water security.

Powerful actors close to the government say the Egyptian people will call for war if Ethiopia tries to starve the country. The Ethiopian prime minister and Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed has responded in kind. Last year he said, “No force can stop Ethiopia from building the dam” and that the country would marshal “millions” of men to defend it.

Despite this, the chances of outright war between Egypt and Ethiopia are slim. With 1,000 miles of Sudanese desert separating the two powers, Ethiopia looks invulnerable to land attacks.

Airstrikes on the dam are a more feasible military option for Egypt. However, this would have devastating effects on regional security and would win Cairo few long-term benefits.

“If Egypt launched strikes against the dam, what long-term advantage would it gain? Even if that strike was highly destructive, Ethiopia would just start building another dam on the Blue Nile. In 10 years, Egypt would face the same problem, but this time it would not be consulted at all,” said William Davidson, senior analyst at Brusselsbased NGO International Crisis Group.

A new round of African Union mediated talks is currently under way.

Last week, Egypt’s foreign minister warned of the risk of conflict if the UN-failed to intervene in the dispute.

“The latest talks represent the culmination of months of brinkmanship,” said Adam Taylor, of Africa-focused risk consultancy, Sofala Partners. “It still seems difficult to imagine how either Egypt or Ethiopia could publicly cede ground without losing face.”

It is unclear who will back down first. If no deal is found, tensions in the fragile region will continue to rise with the waters.

The plane load of weapons, detailed in several documents leaked to The Sunday Telegraph, will stay in Egypt – for now.