Sudan ‘poised to normalise ties with Israel’

Khartoum could be fourth Arab country to sign peace deal with Jewish state as new regional alliance grows

SUDAN is believed to be the next Arab state to normalise relations with Israel, following the surprise announcement that the United Arab Emirates had established diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. However, mixed messages from Khartoum in recent days highlight how sensitive the subject is for the nation.

On Tuesday, a Sudan foreign ministry official told Sky News Arabia that Khartoum was “looking forward to concluding a peace agreement with Israel”, sparking speculation that it could become the fourth Arab country to normalise relations after the UAE, Egypt and Jordan.

However, the next day Omar Qamar al-Din Ismail, the acting foreign minister, fired the spokesman, saying he was “astonished” by his statement. While normalisation remains a sensitive issue, privately Sudan has engaged in talks with Israel for months, encouraged by the UAE and the US. One official recently told AP “it’s a matter of time” before a deal is concluded.

For Israel, normalisation with Sudan would be particularly symbolic. Khartoum hosted the 1967 Arab League summit after the Arab-Israeli war at which eight states agreed to the “three nos”; no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel and no negotiations. During three decades of Islamist rule under Omar Al Bashir, the former president, Sudan was staunchly anti-Zionist. But with his overthrow last April, a major hurdle to normalisation was removed. Sudan is eager to rejoin the international community and desperate for economic support. Behind the scenes, the UAE is encouraging it and other Arab nations to forgo historic enmity with Israel as part of a strategy to forge a new regional alliance.

Sudan’s transitional civilian-led government faces lingering conflicts in Darfur and South Kordofan, and a crippling economic crisis.

“All of this means that Sudan is looking for friends in a big way,” said Eric Reeves, a longtime Sudan researcher.

After concluding their own accord this month, Israel and the UAE are promising Sudan such a friendship.

“Israel, Sudan and the region will all benefit from a peace deal and will be able to build a better future together,” Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said on Tuesday. “We will do whatever is necessary into reality.”

After Mr Bashir’s overthrow, the UAE and Saudi Arabia threw Sudan a $3billion (£2.3billion) lifeline, but future aid could be contingent on Sudan following the UAE’s lead on regional issues, including normalisation.

“The UAE has an interest in seeing Sudan formally enter into that alliance it’s trying to build against Iran, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood,” said Jonas Horner, an International Crisis Group analyst.

Despite the risk of backlash from Islamists and a public long conditioned to oppose Israel, Sudan appears open to discussing normalisation. In February, the UAE and Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, brokered a meeting in Uganda between Mr Netanyahu and Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of Sudan’s military council.

“There is a political risk for the government, which is probably why they are soft-shoeing it,” said Mr Horner.

“But I do think there’s a healthy amount of pragmatism in Sudan.”

Amid quietly warming relations, some predict Oman or Bahrain could be next. Members of Bahrain’s tiny ruling Al Khalifa family have previously received medical treatment in Israel, noted Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, predicting that the island kingdom could be the forerunner among Gulf states.

“Saudi has used Bahrain in the past for trial balloons of normalisation, to observe the response from the Arab public,” she said.

Saudi Arabia said this week it would not establish diplomatic ties with Israel until the Jewish state made peace with the Palestinians, raising the possibility that the UAE’s normalisation drive could become another wedge issue in a region riven by competing powers.

“The risk is there’s a new division in the region,” Mr Horner said, “between those that follow the UAE into normalisation and those that don’t.”