James Frayne:
As grim reality subtly alters the national mood, our Prime Minister risks being on the back foot
Surely the public will back the Government’s safety-first Covid strategy as long as infections rise fast? After all, polls show clear majorities back every harsh measure floated by politicians and scientists. Not necessarily. For the first time, there are signs of change. Increasing numbers are questioning the merits of a return to a variation of the lockdown life of Spring. The confidence of Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Manchester, in opposing tier 3 restrictions suggests he is alive to this reality.
People were led to believe the original lockdown would be brutal and short. But, before long, children’s exams were cancelled and formal education collapsed; childcare was impossible and working life disrupted; children’s birthdays were missed and summer holidays too; elderly relatives went without visits; established businesses in local communities were ruined. Then we came out of lockdown and went back to square one. More people are asking: what was the point?
Unquestionably, scepticism is only prevalent amongst a minority, but my guess is not for long. People have learned – no matter what scientists say and politicians do – the virus is out of control; without a vaccine, we will live a stop-start existence at best.
Given people know Covid is primarily risky for the old and medically vulnerable, more will start demanding a way to protect them, while helping the majority live as normally as possible.
Opinion will shift fast with public realisation of the economic trauma set to befall us. Oddly, politicians have mostly kept this hidden from the public to date. But when Government reduces personal and business support – as they must – people will see the direct trade-offs being made: essentially, health versus living standards. In this new world, the key polling question will be: “are you happy to pay a lot more in tax and risk your job for a national lockdown?”
For most, the answer will be a resounding no.
My career has been built upon reading polls and focus groups. But current polls on Covid are for entertainment purposes only. For policymakers, they are a waste of time; nobody in Government should use them to judge the public mood. The Government’s financial support for the public and for businesses has made many people think lockdowns are mini holidays, affected only by the weather.
Andy Burnham is a cautious politician and he is hedging his bets in Manchester. He has not refused a move to tier 3 exactly; instead he has (understandably) asked for greater financial support to mitigate the effects.
But the fact he has highlighted the relatively low growth of Covid cases there, as well as talking in stark terms about the economic damage tier 3 would bring about, is a major step. No frontline politician would have dared strike out in this way a few months ago. But here we are: Burnham knows there is a change in the public mood.
If the Labour Party follows Burnham’s lead – not imminently likely, granted – the Government would be in a very vulnerable position politically. As public concerns shift primarily to jobs and living standards, Labour would appear the party most in touch with the public mood overall – and, crucially, with working-class voters the Conservatives have come to rely on. It will, after all, be workingclass voters who will feel the pinch from a serious downturn most of all; not only do they earn less than middle-class professionals, they are generally less able to work from home.
The fact opinion is moving does not mean the Government should throw in the towel and let people just get on with it.
On the contrary, if they truly believe the science demands tighter restrictions, they should follow the science. However, they need to accept public opinion is changing and in turn change the way they talk about Covid and the lives we must all lead.
In making the case for the lockdown they have decided to go into combat with anyone who disagrees with them; in turn they are playing down the obvious economic risks associated with harsher measures. A dangerous game. If they are not careful, they are going to look like they are blasé about the lives of ordinary people across the country.
The Prime Minister might carry public opinion with him in a face-off with Andy Burnham this weekend, but he has left himself open to people saying in a few weeks’ time: Burnham was right.