The keys to any independence ballot are firmly in the hands of No10
There isn’t going to be another referendum. That remained the firm view of Scottish Tories last night as Nicola Sturgeon failed by the narrowest of margins to win the 65 seats that would have given her the overall majority she desired in the Scottish Parliament.
By holding on to highly marginal seats at opposite ends of the country, and with the help of one staunch Union-backing Labour MSP, they left the otherwise victorious Nationalists marooned and one seat short of what she regarded as the overwhelming mandate she says should force Boris Johnson to agree to another referendum on independence.
And there is no doubt … it was unofficial tactical voting that did it, as it did for stalwart Labour Unionist Jackie Baillie in Dumbarton as well as several Tories. Surely now Labour and Lib Dem leaders have finally got the message to draw up a pact that will prosper against the separatists’ bid to smash the United Kingdom. They both turned down a proper deal this time. Never again.
With Nicola Sturgeon leading a chorus of SNP and Green politicians shouting from the rooftops for the Prime Minister to accept what they called “the democratic will of the Scottish people” there was no sign of weakness amongst senior Tories who insisted that as constitutional change was “reserved” to Westminster there would be no agreement for what’s called indyref2. Especially as this result showed a 50-50 split amongst Scots on the Union.
“This is no time to be mealy mouthed about the Union,” was the view of one, a sentiment which is certain to be echoed in the higher reaches of the Conservative Party both in Scotland and in Downing Street where the Prime Minister has made clear his view that “a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless”.
And in truth, there will be some relief for the Scottish First Minister in the PM’s resolution as there’s no way she wants an early referendum.
Two years’ time would be quick enough for her. In spite of the most bitter of constitutional wrangles that we’re now about the enter, everyone knows that no matter what the Scottish Parliament does or says, it’s Boris who ultimately calls the shots.
The SNP government has already tabled a bill to provide for a referendum, which will now proceed through its remaining stages at Holyrood amid a growing cacophony from the Nats about London’s alleged intransigence. However, it can’t reach the statute book without the sanction of Westminster. The Prime Minister could ask the Supreme Court to rule that such an unofficial referendum would be unlawful, which in turn would be disputed in court by the SNP government.
All the while there would be huge pressure on Sturgeon to ignore the wishes of London and to go ahead and hold a “wildcat” referendum, which again could be challenged in the courts. That is not Nicola Sturgeon’s preference, as she’s always said that she wants to hold a legal referendum whose result would be respected internationally.
But in the view of many, including yours truly, the most effective method of showing disrespect for an illegal referendum and declaring it worthless would be if Scottish Unionists simply boycotted it – as happened with the Catalan version.
All the major parties ended up with roughly the same results as five years ago on a bigger turnout and if it’s been a disappointment for Sturgeon it has been a signal success for Tory leader Douglas Ross. Following on from Ruth Davidson, this stubborn son of a farm labourer was widely criticised by opponents as he stuck manfully to his task of attacking the Nationalists’ independence plans.
His appeal for a Unionist pact to combat the separatists was rudely rejected by Labour and Lib Dems but, in the end, it was informal tactical voting that helped stem the Nationalist tide. Surely, the other Unionist leaders must at last have got the message that by acting together they can defeat the Nats, whereas by fighting alone the Union loses. As was the case south of the border, Scottish Labour didn’t seem to know what its message was nor who was its enemy. Anas Sarwar, its new leader, was determined not to get sucked into the battle between the Tories and the SNP on independence. He said constitutional matters were not something that “got him out of bed in the morning”.
However, if he didn’t have much to say on what quickly became the election’s main issue, he didn’t have much to say on anything else, either.
He preferred to attack Ross, and in an embarrassing comment First Minister Sturgeon said of Mr Sarwar as she defeated him in their Glasgow constituency: “We actually quite like each other.”
He’ll hear a lot more of that, I’ll bet. As polling day approached Scottish Labour were forced to draft in two of its former stars – ex-chancellor Alistair Darling and even former prime minister Gordon Brown to attack the Nationalists. Too late.
Scottish Labour continued its downward trend again finishing third behind the SNP and Tories and that, I suspect, will continue.