SNP has no moral case for a referendum
It was all too predictable: despite falling short of her dream of an SNP majority in the Scottish parliament, Nicola Sturgeon is demanding another referendum. The rest of the Union is dominated by Boris Johnson, she said, and obsessed with Brexit – even though it’s the SNP that brings up both at every opportunity. It is unimportant, she stressed, what Mr Johnson wants or what Ms Sturgeon wants: it is the people of Scotland who insist upon holding a second referendum, so Ms Sturgeon has no choice but to legislate for one and Mr Johnson has no right to try to stop her.
All of this is utter nonsense. Yes, the Scottish parliamentary results were bad for the Union; yes, the SNP won. But the party appears to have been denied the overall majority that it so desperately wanted, and when one adds up the constituency votes, the pro-Union parties outperformed the pro-independence parties, gaining about 51 per cent of the vote. Far from Scotland running away from the Union, it remains a tightly divided electorate, with a small advantage to the Unionists – who, unfortunately, have not yet formed a coherent counter-coalition. And the proximate cause of any division isn’t the Conservative Party, which loves the Union and wants Scotland to thrive in it, but the SNP, which has used its time in office to campaign for a referendum while Scotland’s drug abuse has gone up, its education has suffered and the country remains stuck in a bitter, fruitless debate.
As for the rest of the UK, the Tories continued to perform extremely strongly yesterday, winning over working-class and suburban voters that Left-wing politicians like Ms Sturgeon typically regard as their own natural constituency. In England, despite being in power for more than 11 years (though Mr Johnson entered No. 10 on a radically new agenda) the Tories won around 250 councillors and numerous councils in England, with Labour losing close to 300 seats and the Lib Dems down, too. Tory Mayor Andy Street retained power in the West Midlands. Sadiq Khan has performed decently in London, as predicted, but even here Shaun Bailey appeared to stabilise Zac Goldsmith’s 2017 vote. Who knows: with a stronger candidate, London may still be within reach for the Tories, especially when a first-past-the-post system is adopted.
There were disappointments for the Conservatives. The party obtained its highest number of seats in Wales since devolution, and substantially increased its share of the vote, but only to 26 per cent, and Labour won easily, equalling their seat record. There were losses in England, too, notably in richer areas such as Canterbury and Worthing, with the loss of control of councils and Mayorship in Cambridgeshire, even Tunbridge Wells. The biggest blow was defeat for the West of England Mayor, where Green second preferences will have broken for Labour, and in Manchester, Andy Burnham is as safely home as Tory Ben Houchen is in Tees Valley. The realignment is still going both ways: educated, wealthier Remainers are moving away from the Tories in England. A mass house-building programme and other measures could yet stop the rise of the Left. But the greatest challenge today is obviously Scotland.
The PM has rightly said “no” to a second referendum on the grounds that the country has so many more important things to do, and he enjoys at least as much political authority in Westminster now as Ms Sturgeon believes she holds in Holyrood. Short term, we are in for a battle of compelling political personalities. In the long run, there clearly is a Unionist bloc north of the border: the challenge is to translate it into a coherent political force that can bring nationalism back down to Earth.
Drug abuse has gone up, education suffered, and the country remains stuck in a fruitless debate
‘The PM has said no to a referendum as the country has more important things to do’