Tories vulnerable once more to new Right-wing party

We are so used to hearing how this Government is led by anti-democratic, ultranationalist lunatics that a basic fact has been ignored: this Government is seriously vulnerable to a new political party emerging from the Right.

Boris Johnson has not had this worry before; “getting Brexit done” secured huge goodwill. But memories are short in politics and a constellation of recent events has changed the context.

You hardly need a crystal ball to foresee such a political challenge; this has happened every few years since the late 1990s. Two conditions must be met for such a party to be viable. Firstly, significant numbers of Right-leaning political activists and donors must think the Conservatives have betrayed their values. Secondly, enough voters from the English working class and lower middle class must feel the Government is failing to meet challenges close to their hearts. The first is certainly in place; the second in progress.

Discontent amongst activists and donors has been growing for some time.

There were two early drivers for the Right: the Government’s commitment to a “net zero” emissions target with associated tax and regulatory policies; and the approach to lockdowns during Covid, which many perceived to disregard the health of the economy.

But it is perceived failings on fiscal policy and asylum and immigration that have tipped activists over the edge. The Budget massively raised spending and taxes, while completely passing over issues of waste and unnecessary spending. Right-leaning activists have been irritated both by the Government’s failure to stop dozens of small boats arriving without challenge and, separately, their inability to remove historic, unsuccessful asylum claimants. Suggestions that failed claimants from the past have engaged in acts of political extremism has intensified their anger.

We know, therefore, that activists are temperamentally ready to move against the Government. But will sufficient numbers of voters listen?

A few weeks ago, I would have said: “not any time soon”. Most prime ministers and politicians are seen to just talk; on Brexit, Johnson did what he said he would. This is of enormous significance and working-class voters respect him for it.

But these voters backed Brexit and Johnson’s pledge to get it done because of border control. And the Government cannot claim it now has control over borders.

Voters tend to cut governments slack on challenges seen as unprecedented; many have put the small boats in this bracket to date. But this has all been going on for a while now – with the problem apparently getting worse – and soon will be viewed as a failure of this Government’s will and competence. For the first time, small boats were brought up in a focus group of working-class voters in Derbyshire a couple of weeks ago. This was before recent coverage of record numbers arriving. I expect this to be a more significant feature of the groups I run this week.

However, there needs to be something more – something directly relevant to their lives – that will make people irritated enough to consider shifting their vote. In 2022, this might well be rising taxes in the context of an inflationary surge. In other words, the fact the Government is taking money out of their pockets at a time when the cost of living is going up.

Who will ultimately lead the charge and develop a political alternative?

Nigel Farage appears embedded in GB News, although you can never rule him out of any populist movement. Ukip still nominally exists; Richard Tice’s Reform Party is visible now and again. In truth, we do not yet know.

All we know is that the conditions for such an alternative exist.

In considering the political challenge, we need to put all this in perspective. Working-class voters are not all going to shift their votes at once; nor is a Right-leaning party going to challenge for power; nor dominate the political and media conversation. We are really talking about the possibility of a new party securing several hundred – or a few thousand – votes in English constituencies. The problem is, this is all it takes to wipe out many dozens of Tory Conservative MPs’ majorities.

None of this is to say the Conservatives should blindly shift Right to protect that flank. This would in turn create problems elsewhere. It simply means that the luxurious political calculation they have hitherto made – that Right-leaning activists and working-class voters have nowhere else to go – no longer holds true. This is a big deal.

‘People may be irritated enough to shift their vote by rising taxes in the context of an inflationary surge’