Almost half of excess deaths not from Covid

Virus accounted for just one in five additional fatalities in some parts of England, figures reveal

AS FEW as one in five excess deaths in parts of England can be attributed to Covid, official figures show. Since the start of July, 22,542 more deaths than usual for this time of year have been recorded across England and Wales.

Of these deaths, just 12,551 – around 56 per cent – have been linked to coronavirus, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, this figure decreases to 19 per cent in West Berkshire, where just 17 of the 90 excess deaths listed Covid as an underlying cause.

Other areas, including Somerset, Torbay, Dorset and Herefordshire, have seen one in three deaths above average linked to Covid.

In previous waves, almost all excess deaths could broadly be explained by coronavirus.

Some 59,324 excess deaths were recorded between Mar 13 and June 20 last year. Covid was an underlying cause in 81 per cent of them.

And between Sept 4 and Mar 5 this year, there were more Covid deaths than excess deaths from other causes. This trend was due to lockdowns offsetting other illnesses common over the winter, including flu.

It comes as England and Wales saw the 87th consecutive week of excess deaths in the home.

Since the start of the pandemic, more than 78,000 more people than usual have died in a private residence, contributing to over half of the 125,494 excess deaths recorded across all settings.

Sarah Caul, head of mortality analysis at ONS, said this may be because of “health service disruption” or “people staying at home rather than being admitted to other settings for end-oflife care”.

However, in November, Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, called for an “urgent investigation”.

The health service has been struggling to deal with the backlog caused by the pandemic. Compared to the 18 months preceding the pandemic, there have been 16,000 fewer cancer treatment starts, almost two million fewer hospital appointments and 27 million fewer GP appointments.

In the seven days to Nov 12, the latest week the ONS has figures for, England and Wales recorded 1,719 excess deaths – the highest number since mid September. In the same week, the UK recorded its highest number of Covid deaths since the same point, equivalent to roughly 60 per cent of the deaths.

However, government figures suggest that Covid deaths have been on a downward trajectory since that point.

In the week to Nov 27, 633 people in England died within a month of a positive Covid test, down by a fifth from the period week.

This decline coincides with the accelerated booster campaign. Two-thirds of vulnerable over-50s have been given the third dose.

Policy makers will now be watching what the impact of the omicron variant will be, both in terms of vaccine efficacy and mortality rate. More than 100 cases have been sequenced in England.

Average daily cases in South Africa, the epicentre of the variant, have increased six-fold in the past week.