Finland ‘will join Nato if we like’ in defiance of Putin’s warnings

Putin is testing the West. The UK should seize this opportunity to galvanise Europe into action

THE president of Finland reiterated his country’s right to join Nato if it wants to, in a dismissal of Russian demands to end expansion of the Western military alliance near its borders. “Finland’s room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for Nato membership,” Sauli Niinistö said in his New Year address.

Last month Vladimir Putin sought guarantees that Finland would not join

Nato. In a Kremlin statement, the Russian president demanded “international legal security guarantees” ruling out “Nato’s further movement eastward”.

Opinion polls suggest that 40 per cent of Finns oppose joining Nato, with 26 per cent in favour. On Thursday Joe Biden spoke to Mr Putin for the second time in a month over tensions with Nato, threatening a tough response including unprecedented sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine.

“I made it clear to President Putin that if he makes any more moves into Ukraine we will have severe sanctions,” the US president said. “We will increase our presence in Europe with Nato allies.”

Russia has deployed 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, using the prospect of an invasion to pressure Nato to give guarantees it will not expand.

Mr Niinistö said Russian ultimatums “are in conflict with the European security order” and demanded that European states must not be excluded from negotiations between Russia, the United States and Nato. Senior US and Russian officials are set to meet in Geneva in less than two weeks, seeking a pathway to reduce tensions.

In addition to written security guarantees that Ukraine and other former Soviet countries will be excluded from Nato expansion, Moscow is demanding the alliance remove offensive weaponry from countries neighbouring Russia.

The US and Nato allies say the Russian demands are non-starters. “In this situation Europe cannot just listen in,”

Mr Niinistö said. “The sovereignty of several member states, also Sweden and Finland, has been challenged from outside the union. This makes the EU an involved party. The EU must not settle merely with the role of a technical coordinator of sanctions.”

Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, said in his New Year address: “Transatlantic cooperation is also essential for security in Europe. In this area, we are facing new challenges regarding Ukraine. The inviolability of borders is precious, and is not negotiable.”

President Putin has conjured up a crisis in Ukraine that presents the West with only bad choices. Thus far we’ve avoided the worst outcomes, but the British Government can’t afford to turn a blind eye to events on Europe’s eastern border.

Putin has mobilised the military on a scale previously unseen, with 75 per cent of Russia’s total battalion tactical groups now situated on Ukraine’s borders. His ultimatums to Nato are unserious attempts at diplomacy, designed to provoke a rebuff from the West and feed into a coordinated disinformation campaign being pushed by the Kremlin that somehow Nato is on the attack.

From Putin’s perspective, there are incentives to make a move now. The US is fixated on China, which makes its military support seem unlikely. Meanwhile, much of Europe is now heavily dependent on Russian gas, so cannot afford to impose the most costly sanctions.

This is not to say an invasion is certain. It could all be an elaborate bluff, designed to extract concessions from Nato. After all, any invasion would inflict considerable damage to Putin’s goals. Beyond the bloody, costly and protracted conflict that would ensue in Ukraine, it would surely prompt Nato to strengthen its presence in eastern Europe – states Putin considers to be Russia’s rightful possessions.

As Putin ponders his next course of action he will be considering the rather vague “massive consequences” promised by the G7 if he were to invade. Putin takes such language with a grain of salt. It’s going to take demonstrated resolve – not just words, but deeds.

Thus far, the UK has been Ukraine’s staunchest European partner, deepening our economic partnership and providing military training to 21,000 Ukrainian troops under Operation Orbital.

To deter Russia we must convince our more sceptical European friends to collectively implement a series of robust, specific measures should Putin escalate the situation. A package of watertight sanctions that could inflict serious economic damage to the Russian economy, coupled with the sale of defensive weapons to Ukraine – so far blocked by Germany – should act as the two pillars on which any package is based.

Berlin must be the focus of our diplomatic efforts. A change in the German government provides an opportunity to break from the disastrous energy policies that have contributed to the deterioration of Ukraine’s security.

Nord Stream 2 has ended Ukraine’s status as a transit state (making an invasion easier), enriched the Kremlin and, by making Europe dependent on Russian energy, constrained its ability to act. Preventing the operationalisation of the pipeline is the single biggest move Europe could make to strengthen its – and our – collective security. In Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister and Robert Habeck, its economic affairs minister, the coalition has two influential individuals who share the UK’s outlook – it is the more sceptical German challencellor, Olaf Scholz, that we must convince.

As we reflect on a tumultuous year, it is clear that the events in Afghanistan will be defining moments remembered by future generations – a time when Western resolve was tested and found deeply wanting. Let it serve as a sobering reminder of how rapidly a situation can deteriorate and the tragic consequences that follow when we take our eye off the ball. If we are to pursue a positive, proactive foreign policy – the crux of Global Britain – we must be able to deal with domestic and international crises simultaneously.

This is a test of will, and our ability to work with our allies. We will soon see if we are up to the challenge.