‘China has missiles that can hit all Nato territory’
The UK has played a key role in thwarting Russia, says alliance secretary-general, but Beijing poses the next greatest threat
Earlier this year, Jens Stoltenberg had been within sight of the end of his eight-year stretch as Nato secretary-general, months away from his next role as head of Norway’s central bank.
But then came the “biggest security crisis in a generation”, as Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine.
“We saw the build up and we warned [about] the preparations for a full fledged invasion,” Mr Stoltenberg says, pointing back to warnings he issued last year.
“The 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine was a serious wake-up call. And since then, we have implemented the biggest reinforcement of Nato since the end of the Cold War.” In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, the 63-year-old says that he is preparing for that “reinforcement” to be turned into a fundamental “reset” of the alliance, which was born out of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty between the US, Canada and European nations. He has agreed to extend his second term for another year to oversee the transformation.
That reset, he says, must be accompanied by increased national defence spending by Nato members, many of whom still allocate less than the minimum threshold of 2 per cent expenditure as a share of their GDP.
In the UK, where Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is facing pressure to increase military spending above the current level of about 2.2 per cent, a rise would also be welcome, Mr Stoltenberg says.
“The 2 per cent guideline is a minimum guideline and, of course, I welcome every increase in defence spending from all allies – also, of course, those allies who are already spending more than 2 per cent, like the United Kingdom.
“But of course my main focus is to ensure that those that are below 2 per cent meet that minimum guideline.”
Speaking in Nato headquarters in Brussels, Mr Stoltenberg singles out Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, for committing to a sharp increase in Berlin’s spending on defence, from about 1.5 per cent of GDP to more than 2 per cent.
“With the size of the German economy, this really makes a huge difference also for Nato’s total defence spending,” he says.
Mr Stoltenberg also repeatedly praises the UK’s role in helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia.
In the years prior to the invasion, he says, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops benefited from training and equipment provided by the UK and other Nato allies, making the its armed forces “much bigger, much better equipped, much better trained, and much better led now than ever before”.
“And after the invasion, allies stepped up, and the United Kingdom is playing a key role... in stepping up their efforts to provide more support.”
On Thursday, at a summit of Nato foreign ministers hosted by Mr Stoltenberg, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, complained that countries such as Germany were making a false distinction between “defensive” weapons they were willing to supply to Kyiv, and providing “offensive” weapons, which some nations view as a red line that they will not cross.
Germany’s response has been hampered by the historical burden of the Second World War, and decisions the nation has taken since then to avoid heavy militarisation.
Other Nato members fear that overstepping the mark in their support for Ukraine could invite a direct attack by Russia, which would trigger the alliance’s “collective defence” and a potential third world war.
But Mr Stoltenberg agrees with Mr Kuleba and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, that the distinction between “defensive” and “offensive” weapons is a false one in this case. “Ukraine is now defending itself against an invasion. So everything Ukraine does is defensive.”
“They are defending their own country, their own people, with many different types of weapons, old Soviet-era weapons, modern weapons provided by the United Kingdom, but also lighter and heavier weapons systems and allies are stepping up, delivering many different types of weapons,” Mr Stoltenberg says.
“So everything Ukraine does with different types of weapons is defensive, it is about defending themselves against the atrocities, against the invasion, against a brutal use of military force against their own country.”
Mr Stoltenberg points out that Nato’s 30 allies are “providing different types of support”, from the anti-tank weapons being sent to Ukraine by the UK, to airlifts and medical supplies provided by Iceland, the only member state without its own armed forces.
“So we have a wide range of different types of support from different allies depending a bit on their inventories, their capabilities.
“But I urge allies to do more, and all allies realise the urgency.
“We are now moving into a new phase of this war. Russia has moved its forces out of the north. But they are not retreating. They are regrouping and they are repositioning their forces [for] a major battle in the Donbas region within weeks.”
Since the start of the invasion on Feb 24, Nato has deployed an additional 40,000 troops to its eastern flank, stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
Mr Stoltenberg, who visited Estonia with Boris Johnson last month, adds: “The United Kingdom has played a key role in this all the way, leading the battle group in Estonia, providing support to Ukraine, increasing the presence in the eastern part of the alliance.”
But he adds: “What we see now is a new reality, a new normal for European security.
“Therefore, we have now asked our military commanders to provide options for what we call a reset, a more longer term adaptation of Nato.
“I expect that Nato leaders will make decisions on this when they meet in Madrid at the Nato summit in June.” Nato, he says, is “in the midst of a very fundamental transformation” which will reflect “the long term consequences” of Putin’s actions.
“Regardless of when, and how, the war in Ukraine ends, the war has already had long-term consequences for our security. Nato needs to adapt to that new reality. And that’s exactly what we are doing.
“Nato is the most successful alliance in history for two reasons. One is that we have been able to unite Europe and North America.
“The other is that we have been able to change when the world is changing. Now the world is changing and Nato is changing.”
Before the invasion, Nato’s presence on its eastern border amounted to a relatively small “tripwire” force intended to symbolise the alliance’s commitment to defend itself from any Russian attack, rather than repel an invasion itself.
Under the plans being worked up by Nato military commanders, that presence would be transformed into a major force capable of taking on an invading army.
“Since we have implemented so many immediate measures, we have the time now until the summit to make more longer-term decisions.
“This is part of the reset which we have to make, which is to move from tripwire deterrence, which is the current concept, to something which is more about deterrence by denial or defence. This is already in process.
“We have to ensure that we continue to be able, in a more dangerous world, to protect and defend all Nato allies.”
Mr Stoltenberg is also planning to enshrine the growing threat from China into Nato’s “strategic concept”, its formal strategy document, for the first time.
“In Nato’s current strategic concept, which we agreed in 2010, China is not mentioned at all with one single word.
“We are finalising the work on the new strategic concept that will be agreed at the Nato summit in June.
“And there, I expect China to be an important part.
“Because the rise of China, the shifting global balance of power, has direct consequences for Nato.”
Beijing, Mr Stoltenberg points out, “has the second-largest defence budget in the world” and is investing heavily in “new modern nuclear capabilities, long-range missiles that can reach all Nato territory”.
He adds: “It is also of concern that we see that Russia and China are working more and more closely together. This is something that matters for our security.”
‘We have to ensure that we can continue, in a more dangerous world, to protect and defend all Nato allies’