Raab would have lost seat, analysis of local elections show

DOMINIC RAAB would be among a slew of influential Conservatives to lose their seats if last Thursday’s vote translated to a general election, analysis suggests.

The Justice Secretary, whose 23,000 majority was slashed to 2,743 in 2019, would lose his Esher and Walton constituency to the Liberal Democrats.

The affluent Surrey neighbourhood voted strongly in favour of Remain at the referendum, but constituents’ fear of Jeremy Corbyn was thought to have saved Mr Raab in 2019.

However, if the local election results are translated to a future general election, the Cabinet member would find himself with a 6.8 per cent smaller share of the vote than the Liberal Democrat candidate.

The party, which conducted the analysis, last night said Thursday’s results served as a “warning shot” to Conservative Blue Wall MPs.

Last year, the Tories lost Chesham and Amersham – another affluent Home Counties constituency which voted remain – with the Lib Dems overturning a 16,000 majority in a seat that had always voted Conservative in a by-election.

Since then, revelations of Downing Street parties during lockdown plus the National Insurance hike have further. alienated many traditional Tory voters.

The analysis shows that Stephen Hammond, a former health minister under Theresa May, would lose Wimbledon to the Lib Dems by 8 per cent of the vote.

Meanwhile Alex Chalk, the solicitor general, would be routed in Cheltenham, with the Liberal Democrats winning with 57.4 per cent of the vote against his 28.3 per cent.

The seats of Tory grandees John Redwood and Sir Iain Duncan Smith would also be lost, last week’s results suggest, going to the Lib Dems and Labour respectively.

Wes Streeting, the Labour frontbencher, posted on Twitter on Friday: “The progress we have made in Woodford and South Woodford bodes well for Chingford & Woodford Green at the next election!”

In the north, Cheadle in Greater Manchester would be regained by the Lib Dems, having returned Conservative Mary Robinson at the last three general elections.

Hazel Grove, also in Greater Manchester, would also return to the Lib Dems for the first time since 2010.

William Wragg, the current MP, is one of Boris Johnson’s most vociferous critics on the Tory backbenches.

He called on the Prime Minister to resign following the partygate revelations, also asking the police to investigate alleged “blackmail” by the whips office against rebellious MPs.

Thursday’s results could energise efforts of MPs such as Mr Wragg to remove Mr Johnson in order to save their seats at the next general election.