Chancellor must drop his National Insurance rise to win back public

It’s the economy, stupid, said President Clinton. Governments in the UK are usually only swept from office when the economy goes into recession on their watch, losing too many people their jobs, businesses and prospects.

It is more difficult to level up if recession is cutting choices down.

The Conservatives were dashed from office in 1997 because they had accepted Treasury and establishment advice to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism. It brought the boom-bust cycle some of us predicted and ended the party in office. Labour was dismissed from office in 2010 because it thought the excessive build-up of debt and credit was fine owing to improved management of risk.

When Treasury and Bank orthodoxy reasserted itself in 2007, we lurched from boom to bust and Labour was finished as a governing party. This Government has now been warned by the Bank of England that we are on the road to no growth or even a recession next year.

I fear it may be right. The big inflation manifested by the energy and food price rises this year are likely to subside next .

The only thing that matters for the nation and for Conservative fortunes is to head off the recession and to allow the economy to grow enough.

Growth would bring a lower deficit, as we should not be irresponsible with the debts.

It will also enable the levelling-up policies that are crucial to this Government’s ambitions and support.

The immediate task must be to revisit the Spring Statement and give people more of their money back so they can afford the gas and petrol bills.

Cancel the National Insurance rise. Suspend VAT on domestic fuel all the time gas prices are too high. Improve Universal Credit payouts. Offer a larger rebate on council tax.

Then work away on easing the main supply shortages that underlie the inflation. Energy policy is shifting.

Every means should be used to produce more of our own oil and gas as well as pressing ahead with more electricity capacity of the right kinds.

Have agricultural policies that promote more food growing at home as well as giving money for environmental purposes. Farmers need help with fertiliser price rises and shortages. Do more to ease the plight of high energy using industries that are struggling to survive.

How do you afford all this the Treasury will ask? How can it afford an austerity-led recession, which will put up the debts and deficits as well as making people more miserable?

The Treasury overstated the deficit last year by many tens of billions of pounds because we grew faster. It will receive far more tax income from energy bills and the energy industries anyway at these high prices.

It needs to use some of that to help stave off a recession which would be bad for the country and damaging to Conservative fortunes.

The Queen’s Speech must demonstrate how Brexit freedoms can be used to promote growth and foster levelling up.