Starmer’s ineptness saved PM from Armageddon
Conservatives drawing comfort from Thursday’s election results are hopefully just putting on a brave face. Conservative performance outside London could have been worse, but perspective is required: only Keir Starmer’s struggles with the provincial working class spared the Tories from electoral Armageddon.
In the focus groups I ran for The Sunday Telegraph last week, workingclass voters in Wakefield – recent Conservative converts from Labour – made plain their ambivalence towards Sir Keir. There was little outright hostility; rather, a firm belief he cannot lead. This is repeated across northern towns; voters endlessly ask: “where is Starmer’s backbone?”.
Amid so many crises, this is a bad place to be. Specifically, Sir Keir is seen to have brought little to the Covid debate, just carping from the sidelines; latterly, he is perceived to have obsessed over what increasingly seems like trivia on parties (which might turn into allegations of hypocrisy).
“Beergate” – the suggestion Sir Keir attended a lockdown party – has not yet cut through (this might change), but this reflects widespread boredom with the issue and bewilderment it dominates the media amid rising costs and Ukraine.
In Wakefield, while many said Boris Johnson should have gone over partygate, most now saw no point – arguing we must seriously tackle developing crises.
Our Wakefield voters were typical of northern voters: neither enthusiastic about the Prime Minister, nor this government. Parties aside, while acknowledging the outrageously difficult hand the Government was dealt, they only gave the Conservatives credit for the vaccine roll-out; Brexit was a distant memory, and support for greater NHS funding a relic of the past.
This is why Conservatives need perspective. Boredom with partygate is real, but recent; severe damage to the Prime Minister’s reputation was inflicted by hostile coverage and will likely never recover. Working-class voters are sticking with the Conservatives because there appears no viable alternative. But Conservatives cannot guarantee Sir Keir will remain unpopular forever.
He has been shifting Labour into the mainstream and there are signs he will take the fight to the Conservatives on working-class issues like crime and tax. If and when Labour unveils serious policies in these areas, it is reasonable to assume his stock will rise.
What does this mean for the Conservatives? There is no doubt MPs should be looking for a replacement for Mr Johnson; lots of working-class voters say they will not vote for the Conservatives in a general election with him as leader. And that is true in traditional Conservative heartlands.
More generally, these results should remind Conservatives they absolutely must implement their levelling-up strategy. With middle-class southern voters wobbling, their provincial working-class base needs care. There has been near-silence on levelling up since the White Paper was launched; this needs rebooting in a big way.