Conservatives’ Brexit bounce waning among working class

Swing of more than six points to Labour emerges in wards with highest number of Leave voters

BORIS JOHNSON’S electoral success in some of the most pro-Leave and working-class areas of the country is already showing signs of fading, it has emerged.

Calculations by Sir John Curtice, the veteran psephologist, show a swing of more than six points to Labour in the wards with the highest concentrations of pro-Brexit voters, as well as those with the greatest proportion of working-class people, compared with last year’s local election results.

Separately, senior Labour figures said that in Sunderland, where the Leave vote was 61 per cent, suggestions in recent years that the Conservatives could take control of the council were “now seen as completely ridiculous”.

While much of the focus of Conservative MPs has been on the fall of Toryrun councils such as Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet in London, along with Monmouthshire in Wales, Sir John’s analysis appears to show a more subtle ebb of the tide in voting figures in some of the areas most coveted by the Tories under Mr Johnson’s premiership.

Mr Johnson swept back into Downing Street in December 2019 with an 80-strong majority following a general election campaign in which he appealed to voters in Labour heartlands with pledges to “get Brexit done” and “level up” the country.

Many traditional Labour constituencies, such as Darlington, Sedgefield and Workington, returned Conservative MPs for the first time in decades, or for the first time since their creation.

Analysis of last week’s results by Sir John, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, shows an overall swing of 4.2 points from Labour to the Conservatives in the country’s most pro-Leave wards between 2016, shortly before the EU referendum, and last week. At the same time there was a swing of 5.4 points from the Conservatives to Labour when looking at the most pro-Remain wards.

But, comparing the 2021 council election results, under Mr Johnson’s premiership, to last week’s performance, there was a swing of 6.4 points from the Conservatives to Labour in the most pro-Leave wards – where support for Brexit was 60 per cent or higher – and a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in the most pro-Remain areas. “So since last year some of the stronger swing to Conservatives in Leave wards since Brexit has been reversed,” said Sir John. “But much of it is still with us.”

A similar picture emerged in Sir John’s analysis of voting by social class, with a 6.2 point swing from the Conservatives to Labour in the most working- class wards, from last year, compared with a 4.4 swing from Labour to the Conservatives between 2016 and last week.

Yesterday, Lord Blunkett, the Labour peer and former home secretary, said he was “extremely pleased” with the local election results, stating: “There isn’t a party supporter who can’t rejoice in taking Westminster for the first time, Wandsworth back, Barnet and some of the results across England, Wales and Scotland which are very encouraging.”

He added: “I was with Graham Miller, the leader of Sunderland [council] last night – his take on it was that the Tory tide which had come in, in parts of the English countryside, was actually going out and that the claims two years ago that the Conservatives would actually take Sunderland are now seen as completely ridiculous.

“So, we’ve got to get this in perspective but we’ve also got to be clear and honest with ourselves. We’ve now provided ourselves with a new baseline from which to build but we need that narrative that turns people into real Labour supporters rather than being against the Conservatives.”

Yesterday, Mr Johnson was urged to get a grip on the cost of living crisis by senior Conservatives in Wales, where the Tories made significant gains among working class and Leave voters in 2019 but haemorrhaged seats and lost their only council in Monmouthshire last week.

The authority’s deposed leader Richard John, who openly distanced himself from the Prime Minister during the campaign, said: “The public has spoken loudly and clearly and has sent a message that the party needs to consider.”

Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, added: “With the national messaging that’s come out over the various issues, that’s been problematic for us to overcome and that’s why the results are disappointing.”

Simon Hart, the secretary of state for Wales, admitted the Tories had been given “a pretty firm talking to by voters” and “an instruction that we can do better than this”.

Former Cabinet minister Stephen Crabb, who is the MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire, said the result was a “shot across the bows” and No10 must change direction on the cost of living.

‘We need that narrative that turns people into real Labour supporters rather than being against the Tories’