No10 ignores Southern discomfort at its peril
In the early 1990s the Fabian Society published a series of pamphlets called “Southern Discomfort”, investigating why so few people south of the Wash took the Labour Party seriously. Happily, Conservatives are immeasurably better off in most parts of England than Labour was then, but the lesson from local elections is often to use them to spot future problems, and act now to head them off.
In looking at my party’s own southern discomfort on Thursday, it is irrelevant that Keir Starmer is to inspirational leadership what Ru Paul is to rugby league. From my point of view it doesn’t matter if we lose seats to Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens or anyone else. I want to see as many Conservatives elected as possible, in every election we fight.
So although many observers have noted that the Labour advance in London did not extend much further afield, this is little consolation if instead former Conservative voters are finding solace in other parties.
Boris Johnson’s great achievement in 2019 was to extend the Conservative coalition to parts of the country that had barely considered voting Tory before. Much analysis concentrates on whether the old Red Wall will stay blue, and what the Government must do to keep it. Thursday’s results show that the Blue Wall of the south of England may have worryingly porous cement, and equally needs attention.
I know that it is mid-term, that we are coming out of a pandemic amid a global wave of inflation, and that there is a war on. But no sensible political party is ever complacent about its “core” voters, not least because no self-respecting citizen thinks of themselves in that way. The Tory party needs to rediscover the virtues that appeal to natural Conservatives in strong Conservative areas.
This is eminently possible. Boris loses no opportunity to describe this as a One Nation Tory Government. As leader of the One Nation Caucus of
MPs I welcome this, for demonstrating One Nation values is the best way to ensure our party continues to appeal across the whole country.
One prime objective for One Nation Conservatives is to offer people help when they need it, and the opportunity for everyone to make the best of their own life. The current economic crisis means that this is a chance to show generosity of spirit to those struggling. A conservative way to do this is to reduce burdens, including taxation, on those who are finding life hardest.
But to win back the doubting southern Conservatives will require other, non-economic measures. Many of these people are the traditional pillars of society, who run local charities and sit on local councils. They are often successful in their private lives and want to give something back.
The election results showed that the Blue Wall of the south of England may have worryingly porous cement
Demonstrating One Nation values is the best way to ensure our party continues to appeal across the country
They want a government that seeks to unite society, and resists the urge to declare culture wars on institutions like the judiciary or the BBC. They believe Conservatism involves respect for institutions, not a revolutionary desire to smash them up. They also want a calm, competent government that is not embarrassing.
It is worrying if London, a city full of successful people, widely rejects the country’s centre-Right party. This did not used to be the case. It is equally worrying when the Tory shires show similar moves to distance themselves. The route back to victory in all parts of the country lies with making a reality of One Nation rhetoric, in policy and personalities, to keep our successful coalition as wide as possible.