Rather than a change in PM’s ‘psychology’, we need competent, Conservative government

Yesterday on Radio 4 Boris Johnson announced that we were not going to witness “some sort of psychological transformation” in him as a result of a few by-election losses. That was no surprise.

But this is an answer to a question nobody is asking. It is not a change in the Prime Minister’s own personal psychology that this country needs.

What we need instead is a change of mindset in the Government if we are to cope with the most dramatic economic challenge for 50 years or more. Some of that challenge is unavoidable, and not the Government’s fault. Nobody forecast Covid and its consequences.

The Prime Minister likes to say that he gets the big calls right. Well, sometimes. One the Government has got wrong is the financing of the £400billion plus spent on Covid measures. As long ago as April 2020, some of us argued for the establishment of “war loan” debt structures to finance a national emergency, to allow us to pay for it over 50 to 100 years. It was possible. As late as February last year, private institutions got 40-year money at 2.3 per cent. Government could have done much better for much longer.

Similarly, we have printed too much money, which is a major reason that British inflation is so high. Now, for the first time in decades, the country faces both stagflation and a seriously emboldened trade union movement.

The first answer is growth. Without economic growth you do not get productivity growth, and without that you do not get real wage growth.

The inflation spiral leads to poverty, misery, and economic and civil strife, and is hard to bring to an end. The main policy for growth is cutting taxes both on families and business.

For working families, this is the fastest and most effective way of helping meet the cost of living crisis As for business, tax pressures are significant and increasing. Corporation tax is about to jump by 6 per cent. The super-deductor investment allowance is about to expire. And, of course, the windfall tax has consequences not just for the oil and gas sector, but for certainty and investment across the economy.

Boris likes to say that his critics have only one policy difference with him, namely that they want to rejoin the single market. That is plainly not true of me, or many others. The biggest policy difference is that we want our government to stop talking about tax reductions and deliver them, so that we are no longer the highest taxing Tory government in history. And as a result of that we would have a fighting chance of defeating the coming stagflation crisis, and of winning the next election.

Post-Covid the public want government to get the smaller calls right too. Whether it is getting your driving licence, passport, or a GP appointment on time, post-Covid government is struggling with basic competence. This affects all our constituents every day. It is time to get a grip of that and deliver on the basics.

I am not one of those who has argued for a change in the rules on leadership. So, in theory at least, Boris has a year to regain the support of those who voted against him. My advice to him is that it is not a psychological change that we want, it is not even big headline grabbing initiatives that we want, but a return to being a competent, and above all Conservative government once more.

‘The biggest difference is we want our government to stop talking about tax reductions and deliver them’