Iran is perilously close to getting a nuclear bomb
As the West focuses its resources on defeating Putin’s monstrous war, other adversaries are flexing their muscles. Beijing is sending warships to circle Japan and record numbers of jets into Taiwanese airspace. In Iran, the West faces the imminent prospect of a nuclear armed adversary that would imperil our security and upend the regional order – not that you’d know it from the noises coming out of Western capitals.
Since President Biden’s inauguration, the US, along with the UK, France and Germany, has been pleading with Iran to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the well-intentioned but fatally flawed nuclear agreement. This week the latest rounds of talks began in Doha, and, like a metronome, Iran stalled progress by bringing up settled disputes. Meanwhile, its nuclear programme continues apace.
We have seen this before. But this time a dangerous new dynamic is weakening the West. As the EU tries to reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons, France and Germany are increasingly keen for a deal to be signed with Iran so sanctions on Iranian energy exports can be lifted.
It would be perverse if the West, trying to wean itself off a terrorist regime in Moscow, turned to Tehran – the largest state sponsor of terrorism. Just last week, they tried to slaughter Israeli tourists in Istanbul. In any case, there is not enough Iranian oil to stem the pressure on wholesale energy prices. The US could ramp up domestic production and Saudi Arabia could maximise output, but the West’s weak negotiating stance on Iran has left Riyadh uncooperative. The West must rip up its current strategy if we are to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb.
Iran’s nuclear aims have progressed so far beyond the JCPOA’s parameters that it now possesses enough enriched uranium for two bombs, and the know-how to replicate this again. The sunset clauses that helpfully kicked the can down the road are now upon us, with the first expiring next year. Returning to the JCPOA would give the Iranian government both political credibility and economic benefits – benefits that will not be channelled into education or healthcare, but into the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s web of terrorist proxies across the region. Rather than thus enabling the IRGC, the UK should be proscribing them as the terrorist organisation they clearly are.
We need a new framework – one that significantly extends the sunset periods, contains tough monitoring requirements, curtails Iran’s ballistic missile programme (which would launch a nuclear weapon) and addresses Iran’s regional aggression. This will require a steely, but so-farabsent, resolve, including the threat of snapback sanctions on Iran that would wreck its economy.
The UK is in a position to lead this change. As we have shown during the Ukraine crisis, we are effective operators outside of the E3 grouping (the UK, France and Germany), with a convening power in our own right. Our strong diplomatic links across the Middle East, and our close relationship with the US, could enable us to have a similarly outsized influence if we were to diverge from France and Germany’s position on Iran.
If a diplomatic option is to prevail, we must act now. Despite their differences, both Democrats and Republicans in Congress are demanding a much-strengthened deal. Without bipartisan support – which means toughening its bite – there is a real risk the deal will be canned by the next US administration. If the next deal fails, there will not be a third chance.
The licence we gave Russia after its invasion of Crimea came at a heavy cost. Unless we want to resign ourselves to a nuclear armed Iran, we need to get serious.
France and Germany are increasingly keen for a deal to be signed with Iran so sanctions on Iranian energy exports can be lifted